Nevermind about yesterday's "warning signs" - we are in a BULL market. For readers who missed yesterday's recap there was a big yellow flag waving, a bearish outside reversal day on the S&P 500 - that is when the price of an index or stock rises above the previous day's high then falls all the way down to close below the previous day's low. Usually that is a near term bearish signal. But apparently it need not matter in a quantitative easing market. A huge rally today almost single handedly made yesterday disappear as if it never happened. There was also a big move in the Treasury market as today's employment data had some people jumping back on the "rates will be rising" in the future bandwagon. So today good news was good news, rather than the bad news = good news often seen lately. The S&P 500 gained 1.34% and the NASDAQ 1.60%.
A very quiet day as the markets digested the huge move of the past week and a half. It appears right now with D.C. out of the way and the Fed with zero chance to tighten for another half a year, no one really wants to sell despite overbought conditions short term. The government employment report, which was scheduled to be released two Fridays ago, will come out tomorrow due to the shutdown, but at this point the Fed is sidelined for the intermediate term as the "uncertainty" of this shutdown and the budget impasse / negotiations to come in January 2014 will have the Fed erring on the side of the caution. The S&P 500 gained 0.01% and the NASDAQ 0.15%. Most of the normal suspects rallied today as momentum traders are back in force and after the bell Netflix (NFLX) which already had a monster day, exploded after it reported earnings.
Stocks surprised to the upside Tuesday as many expected some significant losses on the first day of the government shutdown. However, the market has been selling off for a week and a half in anticipation of this event, and most also believe a resolution will come soon. The S&P 500 gained 0.80% and the NASDAQ 1.23% as recent outperformance by the NASDAQ continued. There was some good news from the ISM Manufacturing report released at 10 AM, but by that time the market had already rallied quite a bit.
Stocks bounced Thursday after correcting all week, although it was certainly not a simple march. Following good economic data out of China, markets surged at the open but in a negative sign gave all those gains back within the first hour or so. However as we have seen all week a morning selloff was followed by some buyers coming in later in the day and by the end of the session a good part of the morning gap up was recaptured. With that, a very rare (in 2013) three day losing streak was snapped. The economic data seemed to pull some attention away from Fed officials who have been coming out from the woodwork all week. The S&P 500 gained 0.39% and the NASDAQ 0.41%.
Monday was a very quiet session, despite the ISM non manufacturing report this morning which usually creates some fireworks. Volume was akin to a holiday session in December. For bulls this action is fine - after a big push up last Thursday, a slow grind sideways is fine - in fact we can see from the long term charts below there is quite a bit of resistance above even as the bull market of 2013 continues at a hectic pace. The S&P 500 fell 0.15% while the NASDAQ gained 0.09%.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its services index rose to 56 from 52.2 in June, easily topping economists' expectations for 53. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector. New orders surged to their highest level in five months.