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	<title>Jack Haddad Trading</title>
	<link>http://www.stocktradingtogo.com/jack</link>
	<description>Real Trading with a Millionaire Investor</description>
	<pubDate>Mon, 31 Mar 2008 17:57:08 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>BBBY’s fundamentals worth a consideration</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/JackHaddad/~3/eq_1Y97jvIY/</link>
		<comments>http://www.stocktradingtogo.com/jack/2008/03/31/bbbys-fundamentals-worth-a-consideration/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Mar 2008 17:57:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jack Haddad</dc:creator>
		
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		<description><![CDATA[I have followed BBBY (29.11, $7.6 billion) for years, never attracted to its “low PEG ratio” as I had believed that it was unlikely to be a 20% growth company any longer. Still, I always had tremendous respect for its operating metrics, its strong balance sheet and the consistency of its results. Well, the pendulum [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><font size="3">I have followed BBBY (29.11, $7.6 billion) for years, never attracted to its “low PEG ratio” as I had believed that it was unlikely to be a 20% growth company any longer. Still, I always had tremendous respect for its operating metrics, its strong balance sheet and the consistency of its results. Well, the pendulum has seemingly swung the other way. Will BBBY never grow again? The company has no debt, $2.5 billion in tangible equity, and $377mm cash as of the seasonally-low Q3. Pre-tax margins have declined from 16% to 13% over the past two years and conservatively should be a minimum of 12% on a normalized basis. So, when they report their fiscal year in April, I wouldn’t be surprised to see estimates come down again given the macroeconomic environment and the slightly high inventory situation, but we are at least getting close to a good normalized earnings power with a very low PE to boot. As you can see in the chart below, the stock has essentially been in a holding pattern for the past 7 years, as the PE has shrunk from the 30s to the low teens. The P/S ratio has declined from 4 to 1, and the EV/EBITDA ratio is 6.8.<br />
</font><br />
<a href="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2008/3/31/ab2_resize.jpg" title="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2008/3/31/ab2_resize.jpg"><img src="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2008/3/31/thumb_480_ab2_resize.jpg" alt="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2008/3/31/ab2_resize.jpg" /></a></p>
<p>While i have not yet bought BBY, I recommend the following strategy: Assuming the shares open tomorrow at 29.11, I would buy at market.  Simulataneously, I would write either strike 30 or strike 27.50.  April strike 30 is offering a nice 1.20/contract.  on a 100 share investment, this premium represents a heft return of 29% in nearly 1 month.  If you cannot stomach further downside from 29.11, consider hedging your shares with strike 27.50 calls.  Theyre paying a premium of 2.55/contract.  That is nearly a .95/contract in intrinsic value.  Both are winners.  Personally, I like the 27.50 striuke because I like having the shares get called away by option expiration.</p>
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		<title>INTC</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/JackHaddad/~3/zf60IAtCXHo/</link>
		<comments>http://www.stocktradingtogo.com/jack/2008/03/24/intc-7/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Mar 2008 06:45:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jack Haddad</dc:creator>
		
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stocktradingtogo.com/jack/2008/03/24/intc-7/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[On 2/19/08, I posted the following:
&#8220;Bought 20 blocks at 20.52.  Today’s downside, which is attributed to the removal of INTC from the conviction “buy” list, does not mean anything negative concerning the fundamentals of the company.  INTC’s fundamentals are no different today than they were 3 months ago.  Therefore, Goldman’s removal of INTC from their “buy” [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>On 2/19/08, I posted the following:</p>
<p>&#8220;Bought 20 blocks at 20.52.  Today’s downside, which is attributed to the removal of INTC from the conviction “buy” list, does not mean anything negative concerning the fundamentals of the company.  INTC’s fundamentals are no different today than they were 3 months ago.  Therefore, Goldman’s removal of INTC from their “buy” list recommendation is at best silly.  I also wrote 1000 March strike 20 calls at 1.25/contract, and 1000 March strike 21 calls at .72/contract.  This is a good mixture of “deep” and “at the money” covered call strategy&#8221;.</p>
<p> On  3/28/08, the shares closed above both strikes, 20 and 21.  Therefore, my shares got called away and I pocketed .73/contract times 100,000 shares and 1.20/contract times 100,000 shares.  This transaction was the funds largest gainer for the month of March.</p>
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		<title>AAPL</title>
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		<comments>http://www.stocktradingtogo.com/jack/2008/03/24/aapl/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Mar 2008 06:34:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jack Haddad</dc:creator>
		
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		<description><![CDATA[On 2/22/08, I posted the following:
&#8220;Apple’s challenges regarding its inability to generate the promised sales and revenue from iphones is not warranted.  because the iPhone likely generates gross margins of 55% to 60% — compared with 30% to 33% gross margins for the rest of Apple’s product line — the device could be responsible for [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>On 2/22/08, I posted the following:</p>
<p>&#8220;Apple’s challenges regarding its inability to generate the promised sales and revenue from iphones is not warranted.  because the iPhone likely generates gross margins of 55% to 60% — compared with 30% to 33% gross margins for the rest of Apple’s product line — the device could be responsible for as much as 80% of Apple’s earnings. <br />
That said, bought 5 blocks at 116.45 and wrote 500 March strike 115 at 6.60/contract.  I feel that I not only have a hedge of approximately 5.00/share but also a good pivotal entry&#8221;.</p>
<p>On 3/28/08, the shares closed above 134.  Since they closed above the strike of 115, the shares got called away and I pocketed 5.75 per contract times 50,000 shares.</p>
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		<title>Is Citi’s debt sustainable?</title>
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		<comments>http://www.stocktradingtogo.com/jack/2008/03/24/is-citis-debt-sustainable/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Mar 2008 06:29:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jack Haddad</dc:creator>
		
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stocktradingtogo.com/jack/2008/03/24/is-citis-debt-sustainable/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In June of 2007, credit rating agency Moody&#8217;s opined that the market was safe from systemic risk in part because the $45 billion in profits reported by a group of financial firms including Citi and Merrill Lynch were &#8220;considerable and significantly larger than in 1998,&#8221; when those same firms reported profits of $12 billion. As [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In June of 2007, credit rating agency Moody&#8217;s opined that the market was safe from systemic risk in part because the $45 billion in profits reported by a group of financial firms including Citi and Merrill Lynch were &#8220;considerable and significantly larger than in 1998,&#8221; when those same firms reported profits of $12 billion. As the events surrounding Bear Stearns show all too clearly, the market isn&#8217;t safe from systemic risk. Was Moody&#8217;s wrong partly because that $45 billion isn&#8217;t sustainable?  From 1947 to 1997, financial profits were stable at around 0.75% of GDP. But over the last ten years, the share of GDP represented by financial profits began to shoot higher. In the last few years - before the Street began to report massive writeoffs - financial profits represented roughly 2.25% of GDP. Inker says that it is too simplistic to say that the right number should be 0.75%. But when you think about what financial profits consisted of at the height of the boom, 2.25% seems unsustainable too. </p>
<p>Thus far, Citigroup has taken $32 billion in writedowns related to the subprime crisis. Merrill Lynch&#8217;s writedowns have totaled $22 billion. So were Citi&#8217;s 2006 profits really the reported $21.2 billion, and were Merrill&#8217;s the reported $7.5 billion? Or was some percentage of that an illusion? If Bear can be sold for $2 or $10 a share, then how solid was Bear Stearns&#8217; $84 per share in reported book value?</p>
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		<title>NYX’s fundamental and technical analysis</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/JackHaddad/~3/co9tZ1--S3c/</link>
		<comments>http://www.stocktradingtogo.com/jack/2008/03/10/nyxs-fundamental-and-technical-analysis/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 11 Mar 2008 07:39:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jack Haddad</dc:creator>
		
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stocktradingtogo.com/jack/2008/03/10/nyxs-fundamental-and-technical-analysis/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[On March 6th 2008, NYX said that trading volumes in February were very strong.  The Euro Cash market volumes rose 43% year-over-year, and US Equities volume also rose by a 20% growth rate.  Derivative volumes also rose on both sides of the Atlantic – European derivative volume rose by a 37% metric, and US derivative volume [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>On March 6th 2008, NYX said that trading volumes in February were very strong.  The Euro Cash market volumes rose 43% year-over-year, and US Equities volume also rose by a 20% growth rate.  Derivative volumes also rose on both sides of the Atlantic – European derivative volume rose by a 37% metric, and US derivative volume on the NYSE rose by over 70%!  Morevoer,  Euronext’s plans to expand into areas beyond just equities trading is paying off, particularly in the derivatives industry. NYX is also actively closing on its deal to acquire the AMEX.</p>
<p> The company is expected to achieve $3.29 in earnings per share this year (ending Dec 2008), putting the current P/E ratio for the Company at roughly 14x its expected calendar year forward earnings.  Earnings  for 2009 are forecast in a range from $4.56 per share in EPS on the high end, all the way down to $3.87 on the low end. I foresee an annual rate that is in line with that $4.00 per share estimate, possibly slightly higher, accounted for by additional tax savings, and by a probable acquisition of an options exchange (or additional other exchanges, for that matter). </p>
<p>There has been a radical drop of about 20% in the shares within the latest month, leading to a trailing 52 week performance of these shares of -28%.  We could see stabilization at current levels, and then hope to see additional improvement in the RSI and MACD lines, which measure relative strength and divergence from the  moving averages, respectively.  Previous highs were in the $105 - $110 range, so today’s $60 price is a solid discount to those highs.</p>
<p> On any shares purchased at or below $60, consider writing June 2008  covered calls at the $70.00 strike price or higher against this long position. Currently those calls are (Friday 3/7/08) bid at $2.65 per share.  Also, one ,might do &#8221;put option strategy, calling for investors to sell, or “write” the June and September 2008 expiration put options on NYX at the $60.00 and $55 strike price<strong><em>.  </em></strong>Current premium levels reflect that investors implementing these positions will enjoy either a nearly 10% return on their committed capital (assuming no stock is assigned and the option premiums are all kept), or they will be able to purchase NYX stock at an adjusted net price level of roughly $52.50 per share (accounting for option premiums), a significant discount to the present market price.  The final price an investor will pay is dependent upon how many of the options are assigned over the life of the position and the transactions costs.</p>
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		<title>Attractive picks for the financial and retail sectors.</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/JackHaddad/~3/09mSTABQ0QE/</link>
		<comments>http://www.stocktradingtogo.com/jack/2008/03/09/attractive-picks-for-the-financial-and-retail-sectors/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 10 Mar 2008 03:34:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jack Haddad</dc:creator>
		
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		<description><![CDATA[The retail and financial sectors have again become attractive.   Some brokerage firms and banks have forsaken the entire 30% run-up that they have rallied in the last 2 months. 
Subprime writedowns offer investors a rare opportunity to buy MS, a high-caliber brokerage at just 1.2x tangible book value.   Looking at the premium of March strike 40 calls [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The retail and financial sectors have again become attractive.   Some brokerage firms and banks have forsaken the entire 30% run-up that they have rallied in the last 2 months. </p>
<p>Subprime writedowns offer investors a rare opportunity to buy MS, a high-caliber brokerage at just 1.2x tangible book value.   Looking at the premium of March strike 40 calls and puts.  I favor the put at 2.40/contract versus the calls which is paying only 1.20/contract.  I recommend writing (sell to open) the March strike 40 puts at 2.40 without purchasing the underlying shares.  The 2.40 premium per contract gives you a 2.40 downside hedge from the current share price of 39.89.  Again, this puts is termed &#8220;at the money&#8221; since the strike equals the share price.  If, in two weeks, the ahres are below 37.60, close out the puts (Buy to cover) and buy the shares.  You would have pocketed the entire premium at 2.40/contract and would have an opportunity at buying the shares lower than theyre currently today. </p>
<p>LEH is a little pricier, but its earnings are going to be more predictable than most of its ilk.  The shares are trading at 46.50 as oflast Friday.  I recommend buying the shares and hedge them with the March strike 45 calls that are paying 3.50/contract.  This premium give you an intrinsic value of 1.75/contract should the shares trade above 45 in two weeks or 1.75 hedge per contract should the shares be below 45.  Either direction is attractive considering the recent pullbackon the shares. </p>
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		<title>LDK’s calls and puts for March strike 22.50 at 1.40 provide an attractive opportunity!</title>
		<link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/JackHaddad/~3/ETFXvMO2PVA/</link>
		<comments>http://www.stocktradingtogo.com/jack/2008/03/09/ldks-calls-and-puts-for-march-strike-2250-at-140-provide-an-attractive-opportunity/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 10 Mar 2008 02:19:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jack Haddad</dc:creator>
		
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		<description><![CDATA[Team,
The solar sector has tanken a beating as of late&#8230; This is particularly true for TSL, FSLR, SOLF, LDK.
I direct your attention to LDK which is now trading at 6 times 2009 earnings with a PEG of .12!    The earnings figures for 2008 are evident by LDK&#8217;s production plkans for the remainder of the year.  LDK is [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Team,</p>
<p>The solar sector has tanken a beating as of late&#8230; This is particularly true for TSL, FSLR, SOLF, LDK.</p>
<p>I direct your attention to LDK which is now trading at 6 times 2009 earnings with a PEG of .12!    The earnings figures for 2008 are evident by LDK&#8217;s production plkans for the remainder of the year.  LDK is currently building a polysilicone manufacturing plant.  Fluor is the contractor, so there is no question of it being substandard. LDK has brought top level managers from such companies as MEMC Electronic Materials  to oversee all of its production and to hire and train the people necessary to run the plant.   LDK&#8217;s  earnings for 2009 will likely be close to the high estimate of $7.15.  That would mean that LDK is trading closer to 3-4 times 2009 earnings today; and it is a 100% grower.  Moreover, the company would be able to show gross margins of 40-50% with a functioning polysilicone plant in 2009.  This margin figure would be competitive with FSLR’s, which is currently trading at approximately 39 times 2009 earnings. Would you rather buy a company showing the same gross margins (40-50%) which costs 6 to 13 times less based on 2009 earnings results? Or would you rather pay for a brand name.</p>
<p>As of last Friday, the shares closed at 22.49 which compelled me to examine March strike 22.50 calls and puts.  Both calls and puts are paying roughly the same premium per contract: 1.40 for every 100 shares!  Since theyre identical in premium, I recommend writing either with the shares.  For example, buy the shares and and simultaneously write (&#8221;sell to open&#8221;) either the calls or puts for march strike 22.50.  Since the strike equals the share price, both option types are termed &#8220;at the money&#8221; type options.  They both offer a downside of 1.40 per 100 shares.</p>
<p>Be adivsed thart I have not taken a position in LDK yet.  However, I will be looking at the shares Monday morning.</p>
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		<title>Exchange traded funds</title>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Mar 2008 23:47:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jack Haddad</dc:creator>
		
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		<description><![CDATA[Exchange traded funds (ETF) assets totaled more than $568.7 billion of the more than $1 trillion in stock index funds as of Jan. 31, according to the Investment Company Institute.  This represents  32% increase over last year. However,  the number is down $39.7 billion from December of 2007.  Although the market offers many ETFs, few have a [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Exchange traded funds (ETF) assets totaled more than $568.7 billion of the more than $1 trillion in stock index funds as of Jan. 31, according to the Investment Company Institute.  This represents  32% increase over last year. However,  the number is down $39.7 billion from December of 2007.  Although the market offers many ETFs, few have a long history.   Very few have a one-year performance record, let alone a three-year record &#8212; arguably an important milestone &#8212; so only time will tell whether they can build solid track record over longer time periods.</p>
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