2008 trading

[Fredledingue]

You think the storm has passed? What if the fed reduces rates only by .25 point?
What if inflation surges more than expected?
I don't see a rally in the next month. But I'm no specialist, and from what I have seen you know what you are doing. Just my 2ct.

[optradersc]

The uncertainty about what Bernanke might say has passed us today, and the safe trade now is to stay in cash as Bernanke didn't say much either. A 0.25% rate cut has been priced in, so a 0.50% cut will rally the markets at this point. I'm betting on a mini rally from the FOMC's meeting onto early March as the market is just too low at this point. In fact, the market has already priced in poor Q4 earning results, so any good news in the earnings game will also push this market higher. We've had this 6-7 days drop in the past week because this market has been pricing in everything from 0.25% rate cut to recession fears to poor Q4 earnings, etc. Just about all the bad news has been priced into this market, and it cost a hefty 800-900 points in the DOW. All we have left is up at this point, until the ARM rate increases kick in and foreclosures are calculated in late March to Summer. More bad news then will equal more drop offs then. As for now, reap the gains even if it is a short term run.

And I doubt today's rally was because of Bernanke's speech, it had more to do with Bank of America looking to buy Countrywide Financial Corp at 90% discount. WOW. They injected $2B at $18-$20, and now they have the chance to buy it at under $15. Just to compare, CFC was near $40-$50 this time last year.

With that said I bought 5 FCSX Jan. 50 calls at $1.25 for ($639.95).
I also bought 5 DLB Feb 55 calls at $2.00 for ($1,014.95).

I'm still cautious, but felt some exposure to this rally can be beneficial. Good luck to all.

[optradersc]

Wow, and market took away all of its gain in the past 2 days. I bought another 5 FCSX Jan. 50 calls at $0.85 for ($439.95) as the options did fall from my initial point, but I still feel FCSX is set to report some great earnings on Monday morning.

Even in this volatile and uncertain market, food is a certainty, especially grain. So, I bought options 2 different agribusiness companies.

Bought 5 BG Feb. 135 calls at $5.50 for ($2,764.95).
Bought 5 MOS Feb. 105 calls at $4.60 for ($2,314.95).
Add that with:
5 DLB Feb. 55 calls for ($1,014.95), and
10 FCSX Jan. 50 calls for ($1,079.90).

5 BG Feb. 135 calls: $2,900
5 MOS Feb. 105 calls: $2,850
5 DLB Feb. 55 calls: $1,175
10 FCSX Jan. 50 calls: $950

Total cost for all trades were $7,174.75.
Cash position has dropped from $16,476.55 to $9,301.78. Total account is at $17,176.78. I'll need to hedge these calls with a few weak stocks to weather this storm. INTC looks weak right now, with short interest evaporating and the stock still falling farther. With expectations of a very strong Q4, INTC can't just match analyst estimates, but it really has to beat that $0.40. I'd sell on any rally in technology right now. AAPL, AMZN, and RIMM all broke their support levels. I had not reviewed AAPL for a while, but I'd bet all the smart money sold on Monday when they realized AAPL didn't have a chance to break above its 50-day ma at $180, good thing too as AAPL is now at $172 -5% lower. Good luck to all.

[optradersc]

Seems like a nice rebounding day to me, I've closed 1 position and added new positions as I will do ahead of earnings on certain stocks. Don't blame me, but I just had the urge to close those FCSX Jan. 50 calls at $2.10 for $2,085, with a net gain of $995.10. With $11,386.77 in cash, I bought 2 positions in education related stocks. First I bought 6 EDU Jan. 85 calls at $2.60 for ($1,574.95), and then I bought 10 APOL Feb. 80 calls at $3.60 for ($3,615). With those 2 new positions, my cash position is now at $6,196.82. My open positions are listed below:


5 BG Feb. 135 calls: $3,450
5 MOS Feb. 105 calls: $4,300
5 DLB Feb. 55 calls: $1,150
6 EDU Jan. 85 calls: $2,160
10 APOL Feb. 80 calls: $4,500
Total position: $15,560.

The total on my account is now showing $21,756.82. Although it seems I've increased my account, I do feel like my risk has dramatically increased. We will have to see how EDU does tomorrow morning because I'd like to get out of that position asap. I will also look into some INTC puts for a contrarian perspective on its earnings later tonight or tomorrow morning. Good luck to all

[optradersc]

Busiest morning I've seen in weeks. Today shall be known as the day of liquidation. Had to liquidate most of my positions right at the open. Closed 6 EDU Jan. 85 calls at $0.55 for $315.05 with a loss of ($1,259.90) , closed MOS Feb. 105 calls at $9.60 for $4,785.05 with a gain of $2,470.10, and closed BG Feb. 135. calls at $6.60 for $3,285.05 with a gain of $520.10. I'm now nearly loaded with cash again, with my cash holdings at $12,886.91 after buying the INTC put position.

Open positions:
5 DLB Feb. 55 calls: $1,200.
10 APOL Feb. 80 calls: $4,400.
30 INTC Jan. 22.5 puts: $2,070

To hedge against my calls, I did buy 30 INTC Jan. 22.5 puts at $0.55 for $1,695 as promised. I noted in another thread that INTC was going to drop.....and we will see later on today.


My account has definitely decreased from $21,000 yesterday to $20,556.91. It seems EDU calls really took a beating on me, but I do see MOS and BG at a nice discount price again......in fact, MOS was only down to $106 until Cramer talked about MOS and how it is over priced. The drop to $101 seems to be pure speculation. Good luck

[optradersc]

Ah, a sigh of relief. I still hope I can reach $75,000 by year's end, but INTC puts have helps as I just closed those 30 puts at $2.47 for $7,365.00, and my net gain is about $5,670.00. With those APOL calls climbing higher in the morning, my cash holding is now at $20,251.90, and total account is at $26,276.90. Good luck to all.....Look into BLK calls for today and will post once I get them.

[optradersc]

Okay, got 10 BLK Jan. 210 calls at $1.20 for ($1,215). I figure, there's a good chance of coming out with nothing, but then again I'd just give back 15% of my INTC gains should I lose out on this trade. We will have to see tomorrow morning. Still have DLB and APOL calls, and today has been a wild DAY......MOS -9 more points early on, that's just insane for a -20 point drop in 2 days. Lots of opportunity at this level. So I will look to buy MOS, MON, BG, and AGU calls today before the market closes (or in 45 minutes). I'm looking for 1-4 month time range and quick appreciation. Good luck to all

[optradersc]

Hmmm, interesting....BLK Q4 earnings came out this morning with EPS of $2.43 on revenues of $1.444B, both numbers beating estimates of $2.14 on estimated revenues of $1.31B. I wonder if BLK has enough fuel to put on an extra weight of 5-10% on this great report? At a 5% increase, BLK could jump from $203 to $213, and on a 10% gain, we could see $223. I'd start seeing profit above $211.20, so I'm only asking BLK to make a 5% jump, which most volatile stocks can hit anyday. Another volatile day, and MER could hit the financials today with that 11.5B write down. Good luck to all....and let's make some more profits.