Mortgan Stanley (MS) - Page 3

Airelon · #17 (**permalink**) 11-12-07, 12:07 PM

I too am looking for a bottom, but I'm going to wait until the market overall figures out where we are at. A good example last summer was NLY. They totally steered clear of the sub-prime practices and mess, and held a very good balance sheet. But they got thrown out with the rest of the trash during July - all due to 'perception'. People see "Mortgage" and just sold - which is the one time I'd have to agree with Cramer. Stupid because NLY was in great shape. But then again - if the market moves based on perception - it's good not to be 'outvoted' by the market. Even if the market is wrong.

Fredledingue · #18 (**permalink**) 11-19-07, 06:55 PM

It was wise to wait.
Just see what happens with Citigroup. Analysts are not done bashing the bank sector yet.
The bottom could be in March next year only.

Airelon · #19 (**permalink**) 12-05-07, 09:24 AM

I'm also thinking around next March, but as I mentioned in my blog, MS is definitely not off my radar, and I'm watching this one closely. I'm licking my chops to buy more of MS. Who woulda thunk 9 months ago that we'd have seen it going for $50.00?

Airelon · #20 (**permalink**) 12-17-07, 12:28 PM

Ok, I know I said I'd wait, but I came up with a bit of a trading plan.

I bought more today at $50.52. I'll wait for earnings. If they do well, then I'll buy more at $52.00 or better, $53.00. If they completely blow earnings, then I'll wait for MS to consolidate and congest (as we were discussing earlier). Then on any of that strength, I'll buy 100 more to Dollar Cost Average out the position . . .

Fredledingue · #21 (**permalink**) 12-17-07, 07:15 PM

IMO they fairly said what they would lose and what else they could lose in worse-case scenario and that earnings will come on line with analyst expectations save one or two pennies.
But since the COD and subprime market won't heal their wound until next year and because winter make poeple pessimistic, I think it's dead money until a few months in.
the effect of the rate cuts will be felt only in a few months.

Fredledingue · #22 (**permalink**) 12-18-07, 05:07 PM

ok,under $47, MS returns onto my radar screen.

Airelon · #23 (**permalink**) 12-20-07, 11:06 AM

Ok, this is just odd. The market is officially on acid.

Posts the second biggest write down yesterday, then China swoops in with just a big a stake in MS, MS shoots up two whole freaking dollars - and we are still up .73 last I checked

I definitely did not foresee this as a possiblity in my plans . . . .

Fredledingue · #24 (**permalink**) 12-20-07, 03:50 PM

Nor did I. That's completely crazy.
Their posted a write down (9.1 Bln) even larger than the most catastrophical scenario (6 Bln) predicted and the stock is up 4%.
Just because China "buy" 9% senior notes? Come on, that's a bad deal for MS (which just invested in China like money coming to and from), the interrest will hurt future earnings and why do they need this money so bad...

In one month the public will have forgotten about the Chinese investor, but not about the subprime crisis, the mortgage foreclosures and the drop in real estates which will only worsen beginning of next year.
While the "Subprime Crisis" won't hurt MS as much, investors will want to stay out of banks when they hear that the crisis continues.
MS will go to $45, maybe less in one month or two. Unless, or until should I say, they announce to be back to profit.
They could be very well profitable again next Q, but the stock wll perform poorly until it's known.

I'm still owning my MS shares I bought above $61.

But maybe there is an oportunity to buy notes with a nice dividend...
If the bulk rate is now 9%, I'm sure we could find depressed prefered yielding 13~15%