advice...sell or hold USG

[brian444]

i boughtUSG at around 36 and its now at a smooth 50 ...the way usg has been lately should i sell or hold

[aquaswim47]

It depends. If you have less than $1,000, keep all. If you have less than $2,500, sell half and if you have $2,500 or more, sell 25% in 4 increments or transfer the assets in kind to Zecco and sell 1 share at a time or in anyway you like for free. UGS is a pretty good company. It's had some turbulence though. I think you know more about the company than I do. The company had a significant net loss last year, but it seems to be a company that is back on track (for now).

[mataspeed]

It's stalling, but long term wise I don't think you should start worrying and selling unless it gets below 46.

[aquaswim47]

The company had an operating cash outflow of $694 million. If the cash outflow is lower or if it has a cash inflow in the second quarter results (June 30), I'd buy more if it falls to $46-48 per share. However, if the cash outflow gets bigger, I'd sell it regardless of the price it is trading at.

Also September should have a positive number (cash inflow) for cash flows from operating activities as the cash outflow was only $134 million shown by a parentheses, and December (4th quarter) should beat the $2.938 billion net cash outflow from operating activities that it had last year. Lastly, for the 1st quarter 2007, the company had net cash inflows of $1.073 billion. It also paid off It should beat that target.

I think it's a company that you stay with; it has a good (not great) balance sheet. I really like the company and its fundis so I'd stick with it and consider buying more if it drops in value. If it rises to $60, I'd sell 40%. If it rises to $70, I'd sell another 40%. If it rises to $80, I'd sell 10%. Lastly, if it rises to $90, I'd sell the last 10%. I'm a value investor by strategy. That gives you some discipline. Take the loss if its second quarter results involve cash outflows of over $700,000.

Did you buy a round-lot (100 shares of stock)? If you did, you can consider buying 1 put option on the stock. If you didn't think there would be upside for a couple of months, you also could consider writing call options against the stock. In the first case, you safeguard losses below the strike price of the option, while in the second case, you generate income while you hold the stock hoping that the stock won't be exercised so you get to keep your premium. Otherwise, you'll give up the stock at below its market price if the option is exercised. I think when the stock was at $70, $80, or $90, you should have sold it or bought puts to have covered the potential downside that ended up occuring. Next time, it's a good idea to take some off the table in small increments using Zecco.

[tmikuckis]

I would say hold on to the stock, I don't see the share price going down...

[aquaswim47]

I think it's a cool site, but people should be wary of chasing performance. That's a legitimate strategy, but it doesn't work well when the market turns against you. Also, I wouldn't touch those stocks with a 10-foot pole. I think you've got to know the stocks well for it to be a good decision. These stocks look very speculative.

Good luck with your investing. I also want to know which picks you screwed up on as well not just the ones you succeeded with. That way, we get an actual comparison. I think it's a pretty good site. I agree with you that the stock shouldn't drop in value, but it always could from the shorts. Sellers will always drag a stock price down even if it's for no legitimate reason.