>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>A Weekly Look at the Dow - Week Ending 6/12/2009 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<
------------------- Daily Chart -----------------
The Dow closed today at 8799.26. It was up 28.34 points today, or 0.32%.
The Dow closed above the 50 MA, which today is at 8310.56 - Bullish.
The Dow closed above and the 5 MA of 8767.35 and the 9 MA of 8751.81 which is Bullish.
The Dow closed above BIG RED the 200 MA, for 7 straight days which is at 8642.57 - Bullish.
The Dow was up 3 out of the last 5 days.
The Dow was up 7 of the last 10 days.
The Dow was up 11 out of the 20 days.
There was a lot of indecision in the Marketplace this week. The upper and lower shadows on the candlesticks reflect that indecision.
Monday saw the Dow come back from being down 130 points to closing with a slight gain.
Source:
Stocks reverse losses as commodities end off lows - Yahoo! Finance
Wednesday the Dow was down on inflation fears and a weak 10-year note auction.
Source:
Stocks fall on inflation, interest-rate jitters - Yahoo! Finance
On Thursday, good Retail numbers and a strong 30-year bond auction helped to lift the Dow by 32 points
Source:
Better data, strong 30-year auction lift stocks - Yahoo! Finance
Friday saw utilities and phone companies lead the Dow to close positive for the year.
Sourec:
U.S. Stocks Gain, Dow Erases 2009 Loss as Bank of America Rises - Bloomberg.com
Volume
- Has been noticeably lower since the May
- Volume declined on Monday & Tuesday. - Concerning
- Volume ticked back up on Wednesday & Thursday
- Friday saw Volume decline again – very concerning.
RSI
- RSI has been in a range between 50 & 70 since early March, and this week is no exception.
- As long as RSI stays above 50, the market should continue to trade in a range to trending higher.
- RSI leveled off this week this week in the 62 - 63 range. Neutral
- Friday closed at 63.98 and leveled off – Neutral.
CCI
- Peaked on June 2nd
- Crossed down through the 100 Line on Wednesday -- Concerning
- Turned back up towards the 100 Line on Thursday.
- Friday it dipped lower and closed at 81.03 , divergent from price -- Bearish
Stochastics
- Has been above the 80 Line all week -- Bullish
- If Stochastics can stay above the 80 - that would be Bullish
- If Stchastics breaks below the 80 - that would be Bearish
- Closed at 85.50 -- Bullish
The Parabolic SAR is below the price line -- Bullish
Accumulation/Distribution
- Leveled off this week at a resistance established on 5/18
- Ticked a bit higher on Friday -- Positive
- A break above this would be Bullish.
MACD
- The MACD Fast line has been above the slow Line all week - Bullish
- Histogram has been above the zero line all Week -- bullish
- The Histogram trended lower as the week went on - a Concern
ADX
- The ADX dropped from 19.79 last week to 18.43.
- This indicates that the market has no strong trend or is trading sideways.
- The DI Positive and Negative lines converged a bit on Friday.
- +DI is at 22.71, the –DI is at 17.85.
- If they continue to Converge - that would be Bearish
Let's take a look at the big picture
(Remember to use the horizontal scroll bar on the bottom of the page)
We see that for 4 trading days, the sloping trendline was providing resistance for the Dow.
This is a very significant trendline that the Dow has traded below since June of last year.
The Dow closed above it on Thursday.
On Friday, what was resistance provided support.
Today, The Dow opened above it. Came down tested it and found support and then closed higher today – Bullish
I would be more convinced if there was more volume along with the close above the sloping trendline.
The Dow appears to be forming a high base - which is typically Bullish
<><><><><><><>A LOOK AT THE WEEKLY CHART <><><><><><><>
The Dow Weekly chart was up by 36.13 points or 0.41%.
The Dow was up 12 out of the last 14 weeks.
The Dow had a Spinning Top candlestick for the week.
- This reflects the indecision in the marketplace.
- After a long rally this may imply weakness among the Bulls
- This could signal warning about a potential change or interruption in trend.
Volume
- Was down this week.
- Volume has dropped for 6 weeks -- Concerning
RSI
- Ticked slightly higher to 55.44 - Bullish.
- Appears to be leveling off -- Neutral.
CCI
- Ticked a bit down to 128.32, but still over the 100 Line -- Bullish.
Stochastics
- Is oversold, but ticked higher -- Bullish
- As long as Stochastics remains above the 80 line, that would be Bullish
- The Fast Line is at 96.38 and the Slow Line, which is at 92.51 --- Bullish.
The Parabolic SAR is below the Price Line - Bullish.
Accumulation/Distribution
- Still trending higher but right at resistance set the first week of May.
- A break above the high set on the first week of May would be very Bullish.
- A break below the low set last week would be very Bearish.
MACD
- Histogram ticked slightly higher this week to 210.570 - Bullish
- The Fast Line is at -85.354 & the Slow Line, at -295.924, still look Bullish.
ADX
- Heading lower, suggesting the trend is weakening or consolidating.
- The +DI leveled off – Neutral
- The –DI trended lower -- Bearish
Linear Mode
