Fall of the Dollar

[dgryder]

The bull run in the dollar may be nearing an end. A short term fall in the dollar could be helpful.
visit Stock Shotz for full commentary.

[Airelon]

Since this is for a forum discussing any said topics here at this forum? Please put any links to commentary or blogs in your signature. Thanks.

As far as the Dollar? I voted 'up', but only because that is the direction of the trend. But there's no predicting the future. It could go either way. Either above 90 or below 85 on the index will begin to give us some indication one way or another.

I tend to think 'up' however. If we get above 90 on DXH9 (The U.S. Dollar Index for March Futures) then the direction will probably continue higher. Many feel that de-leveraging has a bit further to go, and if this is the case, it will only push the dollar further up. As well, we have January 1st approaching, which is typically a strong period for the U.S. Dollar. The COT report doesn't give a lot of indication.

It could really go either way.

[aquaswim47]

I really think that the debt in the economy will lead to higher inflation since the Fed doesn't want the economy to suffer so expect real interest rates to decline even if they are raised nominally by the Fed.

I thus voted in belief that the dollar will probably decline in value.

[dgryder]

Originally Posted by dgryder

The bull run in the dollar may be nearing an end. A short term fall in the dollar could be helpful.
visit Stock Shotz for full commentary.

I see 3 individuals have taken the poll of the direction of the dollar. 1 up and 2 down.
What factors guided you to take these positions.

[Airelon]

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We both already stated the factors that led us to our conclusions.

The dollar could lose 50% of the value it gained in the last 4 months? And it still wouldn't even be close to the Lowest lows that it made some time ago.

The dollar is here to stay.

[Fredledingue]

With all the money which disapeared from the credit market, and will never come back, it will go up.

It seems that hundreds of billions of dollars which were there still 6 months ago are not there anymore. Hence deflation and dollars increase.

[Airelon]

True enough.

Many people do not understand that. That the money supply was increased, but in effect, the money is already gone. With a deflationary spiral on, full bore? Much of that money was simply used to balance the books of idiotic corporations that didn't know risk control from rat control. How much? Well, since so much of the problem is a lack of transparency in the CDO markets? We may never know.

Truth of the matter is?

No one alive has ever seen a situation develop like the one we are in. We are in completely uncharted waters.

[Fredledingue]

I'm starting to think that some poeple used money which never existed.

Borrowing from others who borrowed from others who borrowed... and finaly nobody had the cash.

See my Esher's starecase theory:
Esher's starecase

my post