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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 05-28-07, 10:37 PM
tmikuckis tmikuckis is offline
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chinese stock market... Crash?

I am currently invested in quite a few chinese companies. I keep hearing things about how the chinese stock markets gonna crash really soon. Do you agree.. should I get out? I think the bubbles gotta pop some time, but the question is how soon?
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Old 05-28-07, 11:12 PM
llamagatekeeper llamagatekeeper is offline
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I would say the bubble will pop sooner than later. One reason is because of increasing pressure applied by our(US) Government onto China to increase regulation over it's export quality. With the recent outbreak in pet food and now more products it seems more evident than ever that something has to give and not only will the US provide pressure, but other countries will step in as well. The Chinese government will have to succumb to pressure eventually, but if not and the US could suffer a small recession due to the sudden decrease in imports of Chinese goods. This information is all hypothetical and purely speculative, but it is always fun to guess what will happen!
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Old 05-29-07, 03:14 AM
shevaub shevaub is offline
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Greenspan wary of China's casino-like stock market

Alan Greenspan and Li Ka-Shing may understand more than most what comedian Rodney Dangerfield meant when he said "I don't get no respect." Here you have Greenspan, the man often called the greatest central banker who ever lived, and Li, Asia's richest man, worrying aloud about asset bubbles in China. And yet, the benchmark CSI 300 Index closed only 0.5 percent lower yesterday.
That doesn't compare with the 9.2 percent plunge on Feb. 27. That one, oddly, became a buying opportunity for an index that has jumped 92 percent this year after more than doubling in 2006.
Rational decision makers would normally quake at warnings about the casino mentality in Shanghai. Greenspan, after all, is a very cautious fellow who doesn't utter a word before considering what damage it might do. So when the former Federal Reserve chairman said May 23 that stocks in China face a "dramatic contraction," he's probably far more concerned than he lets on.
Li, meanwhile, spoke volumes on May 17 when he said: "As a Chinese, I'm worried about the stock market in China."
Those words should matter because of Li's investment acumen; folks in Hong Kong don't call the billionaire "Superman" for nothing. Yet parsing Li's warnings gets at a more important point: His considerable business interests would be directly affected if China hits a wall.
China's stock market is a sideshow and so obviously disconnected from reality that few stop to think how much damage a full-blown stock crash could do to Asia's No. 2 economy. It's not about the destruction of wealth; it's about how a stock plunge would hurt confidence in China and abroad.
History will probably show that Greenspan, Li and those investors around the globe losing sleep over China's bubble were spot on. Tens of millions of Chinese -- perhaps even 100 million or more -- are likely to regret not heeding such warnings.
The real losers could be China's leadership. When China's central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, says stock prices are excessive and Premier Wen Jiabao worries about "problems" for the economy, you know Chinese officials are more concerned than they admit publicly.
They should be worried. Investors and business people with huge interests in China are watching very closely to see how officials in Beijing handle things. Think of the froth in Shanghai as a microcosm of China's bigger challenges.
If China's watchdogs don't temper the Las Vegas-like dynamic coursing through Shanghai, they will lose global confidence. The result could be less of the international capital on which China is dependent for growth.
Chinese citizens are watching, too. The get-rich-quick mentality pervading Shanghai is understandable. It's merely a side effect of the rose-colored glasses with which many observers view China. You know the mantra: China's potential is boundless, it's all good, the country's leaders are infallible, and anyone who disagrees just doesn't get it.
Those running China's economy are gifted, indeed. It is doubtful that seasoned policy makers such as Greenspan would relish trying to wrest control of an economy zooming along at 11 percent -- or even faster -- while simultaneously pricking asset bubbles. China also lacks the conventional tools of a developed bond market and a centralized fiscal policy to get the job done.
Success in cooling Shanghai's stock bubble would go a long way toward convincing international and local investors that the good times can continue.
China is moving into a uniquely challenging period. Thinking back to the U.S. stock bust a few years back, it's hard to recall the head of a major investment bank saying stocks were "getting out of control." Merrill Lynch & Co.'s China chairman, Liu Erh- fei, did just that on May 18. It was an extraordinary statement from someone you would expect to love a bull market.
When this bubble bursts, anyone who says they didn't see it coming will have to expect a few guffaws. Hugh Young, Singapore- based managing director at Aberdeen Asset Management Asia Ltd., puts it well: China "is another one of these classic hot and speculative markets that will end in tears."
The question now is what's being done to address China's asset effervescence and how to keep it from spilling over into other markets.
Until recently, the idea that a share plunge in Shanghai would trigger some kind of market contagion seemed farfetched. Shanghai shares didn't mirror China's economic situation, never mind that of Asia. Asian policy makers were wise not to make too big a deal out of Shanghai's gyrations.
Things have changed, though, thanks to a realization of how much Asia has riding on China. Japan's US$4.5 trillion economy is far bigger than China's US$2.6 trillion of output, yet China's economy is often more important as an engine of growth. As China goes, so go many parts of Asia.
Over time, stock woes will chip away at some current and future sources of growth. A Shanghai crash could drive international investors and executives to move their money elsewhere. It also could encourage Chinese households to spend even less.
That can't be good news for Asia, and that's why warnings from Greenspan and Li should be getting more respect.



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Old 05-30-07, 09:31 AM
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I'm assuming y'all have seen the news by now that China had a rough day today. No telling how long it will bleed, but I think you are starting to see the answer to your question now. POP!
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Old 05-30-07, 11:07 AM
aquaswim47 aquaswim47 is offline
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Agreed

I agree; it's about time that China has its bubble burst.
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Old 05-31-07, 02:30 PM
ranko ranko is offline
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but it's crazy that Chinese stock holders are always growing ,


try to find the chart in this website , it's a well-known website here in China and the code here is well .

Can you see the Chinese words or just can see the English blocks?

http://www.topwoo.com

and the english block is the "stock information abroad"
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Old 06-01-07, 02:40 PM
shevaub shevaub is offline
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On Wednesday May 9, for the first time, the value of shares traded on China’s stock markets was greater than the rest of Asia combined, and this includes Japan.

Volume on the Shanghai stock exchange was $33.2bn, while the smaller Shenzhen exchange saw $15.8bn worth of shares change hands. The combined total of $49bn was 21% higher than the previous Chinese record daily total and nearly double Japan’s turnover on that day and triple the combined volume of Australia, Hong Kong, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Korea, India, Taiwan, Indonesia, New Zealand and Vietnam. Turnover in Chinese listed equities is sky-rocketing. Just six months ago, trading volume on Chinese markets was only $5bn a day. The volume figures are even more astounding if you consider that day trading is not allowed in China.

The huge jump in trading volume has helped push the Shanghai Composite Index above the 4,000 mark for the first time, less than two months after it passed the 3,000 level. By comparison it took four months for the market to rise from 2,000 to 3,000, while the index first broke through the 1,000 barrier way back in 1997.

The rising market, which has climbed 300% in less than two years, has encouraged a huge revival in retail interest since the start of the year. Chinese people have been opening new stock trading accounts at a rate of 300,000 a day.
What's behind the China bubble?

So how do you explain this phenomenon? Quite simply Chinese people have nothing better to do with their money. Leaving it in a bank offers negative returns after inflation and tax. The property market is already out of reach for many and highly illiquid, while unless you are rich and influential enough to get round the law, you are not allowed to take your money offshore.

More important it offers the ordinary Chinese a chance to gamble. If you have been to race meeting in Macao or Hong Kong, you are under no illusions that the Chinese people love a punt. Although the ruling Chinese communists banned gambling as a “social evil” back in 1949, the current stock frenzy shows that Chinese citizens have not lost their taste for it.

The Chinese are addicted to risk. They have been known to work 60 hours a week in a factory and risk the week’s wages on the turn of a card. Cultural fatalism and superstition have long fed the propensity for gambling, but there is also a commonly held belief that in a country with a massive population and few clear rules, luck will be the important ingredient in getting ahead.

Penniless college students, housewives and taxi drivers are flocking to deal in the Shanghai market. So it is not surprising that we are hearing instances of individuals re-mortgaging their property to punt the stock market.

From Money Week
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Old 06-02-07, 01:51 AM
tmikuckis tmikuckis is offline
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how much effect do you think a crash in the Chinese stock market would affect other markets?
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