Where will your money go?

[gijoe9]

I would put my cash into Canadian $'s except that is what I get paid in now. What I am trying to say is that if this event happened it would take a few hours/days to catch up to Canada and Mexico. A few dollars in these currencies might be good for a while. I would store my other cash in the market using it to generate more while the boom held. I would slowly convert my assets into horses, guns, real estate in the countryside that can suport livestock and crops, and people who felt the same as me and were willing to pull the trigger to protect our "assets".
I don't really think about it much I am more of an opptimust The basics is what we're talking here 2 pounds of gold is worth squat if you are starving to death and no one will sell you any food. When the Romans left Britain for the last time things were probably normal for a number of years but with little or no trade Iron must have become worth far more than gold or silver.
Well it's late and that is all I have to say about that

[SirD73]

If you are real serious about planning for the absolute worst case senario. Then this is what you need to do.

Find 5-10 furtile acers that can support growing crops. Within 1-3 hours drive from current house that is in a unpopulated area and does not have any nukes or military bases nearby. Trees and Hills are a major pluss. Now rent a Backhoe ($150-300 / day) and buy a cargo container ($1k-1.5k) and burry it somewere on the land and hide the entrance. Fill the container with the nececary suplies (seeds, generator, solar pannels, MRE's & such). An added bonus would be to drill a well ($7-8k) and have it set up to pump with solar pannels.

Check out this site for some ideals www.undergroundcontainer.com

[lehayes]

The best data was the private announcement that Robert Kiyosaki made to his insiders on RDTV. The information from Warren Buffet and Donald Trump was a small statement they made during a news coverage on the issues. To see Roberts information, you have to be an insider, sorry dudes. The videos were recorded in such a way that I can't just download them and provide a link.

Robert's predictions as stated on 04/04/06:
(summarized)
Oil = $100 to $200 per barrell
Gold >= $1200 per ounce
Silver >= $40 per ounce
RE = more than double current values

Here is a little homework to look into though:
When the S&P and other market indicators go up, typically, the $VIX which is an indicator that measures the opposite of the market on S&P, usually goes down. Today I noticed that although the S&P index was up, so was the $VIX. Now something strange has to be going on to have the $VIX going up while S&P index is also going up.

All these indexes going up really showes a sign of the economic weakess. They system was designed that there would always be a flux between the stock market and the other items stated above. Most people will even tell you that when the (stock) market is down, then buy into oil, gas, silver, gold, etc. However, What do you do when all the markets are going up? Something has to go down to maintain a balance. What happens when the balance is not able to be maintained? Are you ready for the counter balance that will bring the markets back into balance?

Also, check out this site that details the US dollar at it's 11 month low... the signs are all there

http://money.cnn.com/2006/04/28/markets/bondcenter/bonds/index.htm

Originally Posted by WallStGolfer31

Lehayes,

Can you give some specific examples, maybe even some data, to support the doomsday conculsion?

[WallStGolfer31]

Lehayes,

The VIX is a mathematical formula that measures the market volatility originally created by someone at Goldman Sachs.

With the economic and monetary tools the US Federal Reserve yields, we can hold off any "crash" similar to those of the 1930's and rampant inflation as of those in the 1970's.

[gijoe9]

How about 150 acres with a creek and a river runing through it plently of wild game and timber a 2700 foot mine shaft that is 40 tall and 300 ft wide and long at the entrance to turn big trucks around in that is bricked up at the entrance a 25kw hydro plant a barn enough field to graze or grow hay the mountains over look all the aproaches to the area there is a bridge to the main entrance to the property that can be dropped into the river in short order. The mine shaft could be adapted to hold people and live stock the road to the entrance switch backs and could be defended by a boy with a sling shot and a toy bow and arrow set. There is enough game and land to support 40-200 people and it is already developed to some extent. My friend does not like the Gov and the power grid and society as it stands. He has been figuring that the end is coming for a number of years now but his wife stops him from blowing up the bridge My job is to run the defense if the time comes. It never hurts to be prepared but I expect I will never have to live up to my end of the bargain.
The momentum of "Man" is such that it gives me an optimistic POV Crashes will happen and dips good times and hard times but it is not inevitable for a crash to lead to the loss of society as we know it. A bad crash will have an effect and we (the huddled Masses) will learn to deal with it. In order for things to get to the point where we are killing each other for a crust of bread a lot of things have to happen not the least of which is the complete and utter collapse of central Gov and the Military. I some how don't see a simple lack of money doing this. The great depression did not create revolution in north america and it is the one event in the last 150 yrs that should have. If you think it is because those people weren't tough enough then have a close hard look at the men who built some of the Gov Mega projects of the time and look at how they lived and survived from 29-39. I knew a few of those folks and trust me they were tough enough to over through the Gov and if there had of been a need then it would have happened.
I guess what I am trying to say is that it is good to be prepared for the worst but not to waste too much time on it because I know from my experiences in the army you can waste a lot of time worrying about every possibility and then when the test comes it is one you never thought of. The real trick of being prepared for bad times/things is being able to think on your feet and make decisions under the gun. Learning that takes practice and experience. The most important decision most people make in a crisis situation is who to follow and alot of them get it wrong. (look how many actually followed Hitler when Germany was in a similar situation that has been described here)
Thats all I have to say about that

[SirD73]

Well said gijoe9.

Here is a link for those that are overly worried.
www.disastershelters.net

The first example i gave was for people with a small wallet.

[lehayes]

Maybe these articles may shed some light on some of the issues we are facing:

Social Security and Medicare:
http://money.cnn.com/2006/05/01/reti...port/index.htm


City streets are getting darker because thieves, some disguised as utility crews, are stealing 30-foot light poles, authorities said.
About 130 aluminum light poles have vanished this fall from locations across the city, despite the difficulty of carting off the 250-pound objects.

[FONT='Verdana','sans-serif']Loonie hits highest level since June 1978 against U.S. dollar
http://www.cbc.ca/story/business/national/2006/04/28/dollar-060428.html
“By late April 2006, the dollar was trading well above the 89-cent US level – its highest rate since June 1978. Despite rising all the way from its all-time low of 62 cents US in early 2002, many economists are saying there's still room for the loonie to keep rising.”
http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/dollar_cdn/

[/font]http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=1346034

Dollar at 11 month low
http://money.cnn.com/2006/04/28/mark...onds/index.htm

RE bubble:
http://money.cnn.com/2006/04/26/news/economy/newhomes/index.htm?cnn=yes

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.asp?feed=OBR&Date=20060426&ID=5671 270

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB114601454316036018.html


Durable goods surge inflation:
http://money.cnn.com/2006/04/26/news...reut/index.htm


Let's not also forget that just last Friday or so, Bernanke actually went public with stating that the government recognizes the issues involving the RE bubble, the problems with inflation, the problems with degradation of the US dollar, the problems with oil crisis, and stated point blank that this problem was not only going to be a USA issue, but a global issue. This poor guy got handed a sinking ship and will have to bail out not just a country, but a countries currency that is used globally.

We can sit idly by while the government addresses these issues (not in the future, but here and now) or we can take steps ourselves to do something about the problems at home with the people we love and care about.
The baby boomer problems with SSI and medicare may peak in 2016, but the effects of it are being seen and heard now. this makes it our problem, one that we can either deal with now or share in the suffering in the next 5 to 20 years.

I hate to say this, but the army does not teach you how to be intelligent with your money, or caring about your family. Their job is to work you like drones for battle situations. Emotions are far from their desired behaviors. If it is the military that you will take your wisdom from, then maybe you had better prepare to baricaide, because your neighbors, family and friends are about to go through a suffering that hasn't been felt in this country. The closest thing was the depression of the early 1900's. Ask a few elderly who may have grown up in that time... find out what it was like for them to suffer. Be prepared for the ugly answer you are about to witness.

Oh yeah, and if you think your are protected because you are from Canada, forget it... Canada has been bed partners with USA for so many years that there is no way, they will not feel the effects of the same problems. This is a global condition, I recommend you get educated on it and see how deep the rabbit hole goes.

[WallStGolfer31]

Lehayes,


I find many widely accepted counterpoint to your arguments and they follow:

http://finance.yahoo.com/bonds/marke...0002/fed_brief

Inflation is well under control and the CPE is actualy looking to decline over the next year. The Fed funds futures indicate only a 32% chance they will go above 5% on rates. Also if you look unemployment is forecasted to saty below 5% till 07' as well.

Also the housing bubble is widely thought of to be only a true bubble in clearly defined, yet small, areas of the united states. Los Angles, Boston, some parts of FL, ect. Although the Fed Chairman Ben Bernacke has mentioned this in his speeches, he has also cited that there is no natioan wide housing bubble, just as his predecessor, Alan Greenspan, has noted that the "bubble" is confined to only small sectors of the total US real estate. With bubbles of the past in real estate, declines have resulted in flat housing prices due to the subltle nature of the housing market in terms of liquidity, and thus as a result of inflation, prices stay flat for 3-5 years.


here are the quotes

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said in mid-2005 that "at a minimum, there's a little 'froth' (in the U.S. housing market) … it's hard not to see that there are a lot of LOCAL bubbles"

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...102602255.html Cites:

"Ben S. Bernanke does not think the national housing boom is a bubble that is about to burst, he indicated to Congress last week, just a few days before President Bush nominated him to become the next chairman of the Federal Reserve.

U.S. house prices have risen by nearly 25 percent over the past two years, noted Bernanke, currently chairman of the president's Council of Economic Advisers, in testimony to Congress's Joint Economic Committee. But these increases, he said, "largely reflect strong economic fundamentals," such as strong growth in jobs, incomes and the number of new households."



In terms of commodities we have the following

http://www.forecasts.org/gold.htm
http://www.forecasts.org/oil.htm
http://www.forecasts.org/cpi.htm

All three indicators, gold, oil, and the CPI are forecasted to be relatively flat. This contrary to the hypothesis set by your sources.

To sum it up. There is no national bubble, inflation is under control, commodities are forecasted to be in a relative range, and the US economy is looking fine. We are in the mature stage of the business cycle right now and although immediate growth in looking to slow, this is normal becasue we are reaching a business cycle top. This all flows with continual regularity, cycle after cycle. It's nothing new.