middle east conflict

MarkVM · #1 (**permalink**) 02-03-06, 09:26 AM

I'm just curious, with all the tension building up worldwide (Hamas now in power in Palestine, Iran getting aggressive at U.N., N. Korea in the temporary shadows, Israel as a potential target, etc.), what are all your thoughts about what may lie ahead for the world economy?

On one hand, it's in nobody's interest to go to war; after all, war involving Iran could be devastating to the oil supply.

On the other hand, with so many alliances with middle east, oil bearing countries, as well as alliances with Israel (and threats to retaliate any attacks against them), it almost seems seems like it only takes one idiot to make a move, and a domino effect from there.

Almost feels like a cold war, pre-WWI situation we have ourselves in; I hope that's not the case.

Matt Moss · #2 (**permalink**) 02-03-06, 04:09 PM

It may not be the United State's interest to go to war because of Oil prices, however we'll take the spike in oil prices WELL before we'll take the hit to our economy that would arise if Iran instigated a nuclear or any WMD attack. We'll stop them from doing that at any costs.

Just another reason why the war with Iraq was retarded. We've spread ourselves thin and now that a REAL threat has emerged, we don't have the leverage that we used to. Bush was spot on with Afganistan, and I would probably support a strike on Iran. However, attacking a country like Iraq was irresponsible and now our rescources are lacking and a real threat is on our hands in Iran. I hope we can learn from these mistakes.

gijoe9 · #3 (**permalink**) 02-03-06, 10:26 PM

Matt as far as resources go I am a little out of touch with the numbers these days but I would not worry too much about that. NATO would support the US in the case of Iran being the agressor in any conflict. The UN would support the US in that case as well and Iraq would be forgotten. The thing that would worry me is if Iran tries to take out Iraq again. They had no trouble using all manner of WMD the first time they fought and would do so again IMO. How does the world react to that? There are no treaties in place to help out in that scenario. The US is the invader there and Iran could make a case for saving Iraq that may cause the rest of the world to hessitate in coming to the aid of the US and Iraq.
Just my opinion.

WallStGolfer31 · #4 (**permalink**) 02-03-06, 11:54 PM

Iran will not attack anyone. If they attack Israel, pratically the whole world will be against them, and they would be taken out in a matter of months if not weeks. They have a few rouge nations that would support them but the overwhelmingly the world would be on our side. They know this. Going to War with you're biggest clients (the western nations that they are currently in "conflict" with) wouldn't benefit them a bit, as the rush to find an alt fuel would be immense, and hurt their economy not only in the short term, but the long term as well.

If we are not consuming middle eastern oil, their biggest next export is figs, so their economy would be heavily correlated with the Nabisco snack food "fig neutons"'s sales. LMAO

If they did go to War, Iran would just be another reformed governement like Japan or germany in WWII. Which would actualty benefit us, becasue we would control them just as we do the former, thus we would be in control of one OPEC country, not in their best interest.

One senario I saw played out was one of Iran banning all exports to the US, and or cutting of supply via a war. During this, the Saudi's would step up oil production, like they always do in shortages, and the US would release some of the SPR in accordance to demand. I can;'t recall the exact numbers but with average demand, we would still have plenty of supply in order to stableize(sp?) prices.

I wouldn't be too worried.......

WizTrader · #5 (**permalink**) 02-04-06, 11:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WallStGolfer31

Iran will not attack anyone. If they attack Israel, pratically the whole world will be against them, and they would be taken out in a matter of months if not weeks. They have a few rouge nations that would support them but the overwhelmingly the world would be on our side. They know this. Going to War with you're biggest clients (the western nations that they are currently in "conflict" with) wouldn't benefit them a bit, as the rush to find an alt fuel would be immense, and hurt their economy not only in the short term, but the long term as well.

If we are not consuming middle eastern oil, their biggest next export is figs, so their economy would be heavily correlated with the Nabisco snack food "fig neutons"'s sales. LMAO

If they did go to War, Iran would just be another reformed governement like Japan or germany in WWII. Which would actualty benefit us, becasue we would control them just as we do the former, thus we would be in control of one OPEC country, not in their best interest.

One senario I saw played out was one of Iran banning all exports to the US, and or cutting of supply via a war. During this, the Saudi's would step up oil production, like they always do in shortages, and the US would release some of the SPR in accordance to demand. I can;'t recall the exact numbers but with average demand, we would still have plenty of supply in order to stableize(sp?) prices.

I wouldn't be too worried.......

You probably haven't heard the latest news but uh, the Saudis didn't increase oil production during the Iraq war, and right now they're struggling to increase production again.

oil as we know it is in shorter and shorter supply.

WallStGolfer31 · #6 (**permalink**) 02-04-06, 03:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WizTrader

You probably haven't heard the latest news but uh, the Saudis didn't increase oil production during the Iraq war, and right now they're struggling to increase production again.

oil as we know it is in shorter and shorter supply.

During the Iraq war there was no physical "shortage" of oil as if there would be with the scenarios above. During time of stress, the Gulf War in the 1990's, they also increased production during the true shortage in the 70's, they also like us buddy, they are our friend. There was no need to increase production during the Iraq war, to cite this as evidence shows a lack of understadning of the situation.

I know about your moonstruck theory, but let me tell you, the spot markets don't work that way, the prices reflect only short term s/d.

Please don't bother responding in the thread, just IM me if you wanna tell me something "new" about what you think......Becasue I'll be gone for a few days, buddy....

gijoe9 · #7 (**permalink**) 02-05-06, 10:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WallStGolfer31

Iran will not attack anyone.

You are probably right about that one. The Scenario I outlined of Iran attacking Iraq is pretty farfetched. I believe that the middle east will continue to be a bone of contention for the world and the US in particular until they eventually run out of easily exploitable oil. When that happens the west will leave them to their own devices and look for energy elsewhere. It may take a few generations to get to that point and there may indeed be a blow up and an all out war there. I just bet that cooler heads will prevail in the process. If you think about it war is usually a thing that is driven by economic factors first and all other considerations second. If there is no economic gain involved then there usually is no war. The fact that the US is gearing up to lower it's dependence on OPEC oil is a sign that the chances of a war between the US and another middle east country are less than they were even a year ago.
I do not have a lot of info to back up my opinions here. I just have my life experience and a good knowledge of current events.
Cheers

MarkVM · #8 (**permalink**) 02-09-06, 09:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WallStGolfer31

Iran will not attack anyone. If they attack Israel, pratically the whole world will be against them, and they would be taken out in a matter of months if not weeks. They have a few rouge nations that would support them but the overwhelmingly the world would be on our side. They know this. Going to War with you're biggest clients (the western nations that they are currently in "conflict" with) wouldn't benefit them a bit, as the rush to find an alt fuel would be immense, and hurt their economy not only in the short term, but the long term as well

That's the thing, though, you are being quite rational on the issue; since when has much violence in the middle east been rational?

Logically, I agree, it really isn't in their interest; yet this is the same Iranian president who vowed to destroy Israel, also claiming that there never was a holocaust.

Tha'ts my only concern; when you throw religious fanatics into the equation, it seems like economic factors carry less weight.