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Call Options and a time machine
Extremely good estimate; it would take 9.704480069 years. That's why it's essential to save at a younger age as this risk trap is what 55 year olds get into. Oh I must get $1 million or my life won't be the same. However, taking on too much risk is dangerous. Over a 30 year period, it takes a 18.2603238% rate of return with $1,200 per month invested. On the other hand, if you have 50 years, all you need is 9.06254781% (more more reasonable and actually plausible). Now, if you invested $5,000 per year over 50 years and got a 7% market return, you would have only $2,033,000, while a 9% rate of return would be $4,075,000 (more than double a 7% rate of return). A 9% rate of return would require a minimum of 80-90% rate of return passively invested in index funds. A $4 million retirement might be reasonable for a person (or couple) who makes $50,000 per year saving 10% of his or her (their) income. 50 years from now, assuming a 6.5% inflation rate (9% ROI) that would only be worth $174,860. Assuming a more conservative 3% rate of inflation will be worth $929,631.
CSCO and MSFT are reasons that demonstrate why people who buy penny stocks aren't thinking; these stocks have beginning current valuations for 1990 of $.08 per share for CSCO and $.30 per share for MSFT. MSFT was around $.08 per share in 1986. However, the CSCO stock was priced at $22.50 on April 9, 1990 and MSFT was priced at $27 on September 3, 1986. CSCO has since split approximately 281.25 to 1 and MSFT has split 350:1 since it came public on March 13, 1986. The return on CSCO stock from April 9, 1990 to February 27, 1998 was slightly over 72.8% (137.25 ^ 1/9). The 20 year return on MSFT stock was (355 ^ 1/22) = 30.59%. Thus, you're only hope of having achieved 100% returns would have been to get these stocks before they became public. Most likely, had you unloaded your shares, you may have affected history as we know it and thus your actual results may vary. Also, call options would have likely been extremely unsuccessful from 2000 to 2002, thus lets say you cash out in February 1998 and you reentered in March 2003, you would have done extremely well, possibly (with the call options) exceeding 100%. Off course, that required a lot of luck, a lot of what ifs, and even the time machine wasn't full proof. In other words, expecting a 100% return is ridiculous and fool-hardy as luck typically never is that good.
Last edited by aquaswim47; 04-11-07 at 06:37 PM.
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