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Old 06-16-08, 06:12 PM
Fredledingue Fredledingue is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 397
Thanks for the chart Airelon,
But what I can see is that neither shipping spot rate nor oil prices are consistant with emerging economy growing demand.
Sure this demand is growing but oil prices has been growing much faster than that and spot rate has got ups and downs.
The emerging economy demand has been growing steadily and smoothly while oil prices have spiked violently.
IMO, higher oil prices (which isn't always higher gas prices at the pump for everybody in the world) will affect demand by creating a trend reversal, lower demand or at least stabilized demand starting from now.
As posted earlier some large countries have a subsidied gas policy. Malaysia and India have only recently increased oil prices to new realities.
And other countries should follow. Those who sell gas at market price face growing strikes (Spain, France, Argentina, India etc).
I have serious doubts about the ability of developing countries to keep up this pace in both economic growth and oil consumption. Sooner or later one should stop the other.
Then if oil prices don't fall in the long term, everybody will start thinking about alternative energies. You ca argue that they don't exist yet as viable alternatives. I'll argue that we never realy tried them.
That's for the long term of course, but the long term comes quickly...
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