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Yeup. Enjoying the interchange all around, and hey - differences are what makes the market interesting eh?
Honestly, I try to steer clear and stay out of politics. But you hit on something that I agree with, and I just can't wrap my head around. Oil is at $135.00 a barrel. Ok, so Chavez is just absolutely insane. Guy outright nationalizes .... excuse me, did I say nationalizes? I meant steals companies from countries like Mexico. So he's obviously insane and is just a thief, and there's not a lot you can do with a nut like that.
So that takes one huge supplier (Before Canada came along, they were our #1 supplier of Oil) in OPEC, pretty much out of the picture. Not a lot can be done with people who are delusional like Chavez. Besides, Venezuela peaked and has been producing less and less since 2001. But why in the name of God would you do everything to piss off the rest of OPEC?
Then I hear people say: "The U.S. is just over there [the war] for the oil"
What? If they were so concerned about the oil - they wouldn't be agrivating a country like Iran whose religious clerics try to teach people (they still do this) that we are the Great Satan; who also by the way - truly rule the country (The Supreme Leader in Iran is a religious cleric. The President pretty much is the Supreme Leaders puppet). The Iranian people, left to their own, has no problem with the U.S. They're a fantastic people, with an unbelievable cultural heritage. So here's an idea - let's just piss them off at every turn, and talk to them like dogs with Oil at $100 a barrel?
What? Am I the only one that doesn't see that logic?
Then Nigeria literally BLOWS up. A country that was once the picture of what stability could be in Africa. All of a sudden (TIA) they just lose their minds. And the only help they receive is a few words in what is almost a by-line? This is a major player in the world Oil scene. And they are not given that respect.
I have to thank you for that spreadsheet, and I'm going over the data now. Just on a cursory glance though, the first thing I notice is that we're still past peak. By the data on that spreadsheet - our peak was in 2000, at 9,057.78 (thousand barrels per day)
Here's the problem once you hit peak. It's not that there isn't new oil out there to be discovered. I often wonder what's truly in the arctic and elsewhere. The problem, according to Hubert, is that it isn't discovered yet. But the infrastructure continues to grow. And grow. So we discovers 2 to 4 trillion barrels in Canada in the pits. More than the Middle East ever had. But there's a problem
It was recently discovered. And infrastructures, worldwide - continue to grow. And then they have to survey what's there. And the demand is still growing. And then they have to open it up to companies to extract it. And demand is still growing. Then the company has to decide what technology to use, to get it out of the sand. Demand? Still growing. Then the company gets onsite, and starts building extraction facilities. Still no oil out of the ground yet. But demand? Still growing.
The problem, is that it takes so long to get up and running when new oil is found, and according to Huberts work, a point is reached where no matter what Oil is found - it'll never be able to catch up to demand. Then when it finally does - the demand only increases.
I don't think man has the smarts to effectively manage his own problems. That's always been our downfall. We then try biofuels. Which only exacerbates the inflation with food. Which causes further inflation. It's like a spiral.
What might help - is technology that helps reduce the dependence on oil for everyday infrastructure growth. Everyone looks at the automobile. But the automobile is just one aspect of oil dependence.
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