Hi, Airelon:
There might be a slight correction on the graph of the US Oil production. EIA website shows the US producing ~ 8 Million bpd while your graph shows downward trend.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/internat...relsperDay.xls
Anyway, very good discussion on oil. I would like to add a minor thing about geopolitical. Current administration stance on playing hardball to several rogue contries is applaudable but this contributes to a higher oil price as well. In the logistic industries, it is most efficient to consume matters (oil, wheat, gas, other commodities) closest to you. By playing hardball with Venezuela for example, we need to import oil further away, say in Middle East. What is the freight difference of ME-Texas and Venezuela-Texas? If you took the weighted average out, considering that Venezuela used to supply 14% of our oil, it may give you a figure of $ 5-$10 per barrel of additional cost.
Same thing with Iran. While it used to supply say our allies in Europe (I don't have data in this. Just a thought), it now has to sell its oil to say China which adds additional cost for the Chinese as well. Both producers and consumers are incurring additional cost. As a result, Iran would need a higher price to gain incentive to produce more, etc. etc.
If anyone have any data the cost of shipping this oil from various region, we may get a bigger picture how much of the US international policy affects our price of oil.