Now just look at those numbers. The two countries with the largest populations, are seeing the biggest increases. China and India nearly have 2 BILLION people. If they see just a 2% increase in demand? We're screwed as far as demand goes, without even considering our own growing demand. And it's already occured.
This isn't about cars. Oil runs civilization. Oil produced the computer you have, the wallpaper or paint in your room. It's on the road that you drive on. Oil is in everything. And the more the infrastructure of a country grows, the more oil it needs. This has very little to do with automobiles (
as far as demand goes)
2. Inflation - Here too, you're forgetting something. Interest rate cuts fuel inflation. A weaker dollar, means your dollar is worth less. Go back and look at what happened to the price of oil the day of each interest rate cut. In fact, look at all of the commodity prices on the days following interest rate cuts. It's just economics 101. A weaker currency can't buy as much. The Fed had to weaken the dollar, in order to get out of crisis
(You have no idea how many people I meet that do not even know what an "Interest Rate Cut" is. They honestly reply that it's something that makes the stock market go up - I kid you not. 
) Unfortunately, that means that everything becomes more expensive.
3) Geopolitical scene. Go back and listen to FRO's latest shareholders presentation. These are the guys shipping the oil. Venezuela refuses to even ship to the U.S. any longer. Incentives are being given to the shippers, to ship to the east (China and India), rather than the west. Nigeria is a mess (
Trust me, I'm viewing that situation closely, as I was supposed to go to Kenya in 2009). And Iran . . . is well . . . Iran. This entire situation is why the U.S. is just getting away from OPEC dependence. But that process is slow.
4) Peak Oil Theory. Now the frightening thing about Huberts work? Is that to date? It's been uncannily accurate. (
if you're not familiar with it, I'll include a picture below,
along with actual data)
The U.S. peaked in 1970.
Now the real problem, is the infrastructure growth continues forward. Exactly as Hubert predicted. Almost to the penny. It's eery.
As far as speculation?
The above is actual data. It's the economic fundamentals. People hear antectodal stories about "All the oil that's out there that hasn't been tapped yet", but they never see hard data. The above is hard data.
I cannot believe how many people I've met in the past week,
that honestly believe that speculation consists entirely of buying, hoping the price will rise, and selling later for a profit. They truly believe that's what speculation consists of. That's why they believe that oil is due to speculation. When in actuality,
speculation is keeping the price down. That's economics is as basic and fundamental that goes back to the days of Adam Smith and "The Wealth of Nations"