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Airlon,
I disagree with all your 4 points!!
1. Demand.
Yes, demand is increasing and has boomed in some part of the globe, but it would take an economical miracle to see that trend continue that fast.
If oil stays at $133 I doubt many chinese will afford driving car much more in the future.
It's the poorest poeple, those who led the asian oil price boom, who will stop driving first. Catastrophical oil demand projections are based on a continuous economic growth in BRIC regions and no price changes globaly and no higher taxes on gas localy.
That remains to be verified...
2. Inflation.
It's not inflation which brought oil prices up, it's oil price which drove inflation. Higher gas price at the pump is not a US phenomenon: It's global. And eveybody is suffering faster inflation.
The price increase in USD is more spectacular because it comes with a devaluation against other currencies.
3. The Geopolitical scene.
That was true with the shock of the invasion of Iraq. Today, I see rather improvements than degradation.
Chavez and Ahmadinejahd hate us, yes, but the still depend on price on the global market to sell.
If these two decide to sell only to non-aligned countries, these non-aligned will buy less from US-friendly producers.
There are very few countries which would sacrify billions of dollars just to p*** off the US. Even Chavez and Iran, they claim that's what they do, in fact it's just that they have plenty of other clients and don't need ths US.
Now let's see when Iraq will open the taps for goods. So far they still didn't reach a multiethnic agreement on oil revenues sharing. When that's done, we will see oil flooding out of there rapidily.
The only thing that still could move price higher is a war on Iran.
4. Peak Oil Theory.
Not sure what you want to say. You claim that the current oil future market actualy keep the price down.
It's obvious to me that's the exact opposite.
There has even been rumor of arab state funds buying futures, beting on their own oil.
It's clear that oil price increase have no material basis.
From $60 to $80, maybe there was, but moving over $135 after six months is utter speculation.
It's exactely the same speculation as with the real estate oe and half years ago and with the dot.com circa 2000.
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