In fact, this post is the last communication before I unplug and pack my computers. The cable guys are coming on Monday morning so hopefully I don’t miss too much market drama.

See you then!

10/12/09 UPDATE: The Premium service has now launched! Please visit www.epicinsights.com for more information.

Since the EPIC Insights Free Sunday Newsletter launched last year amidst the market turmoil its returns have been nothing but world class. As of the close this past Friday September 25th the Newsletter’s portfolio is up 31.2% vs the S&P 500’s 5.8% over the same period. A difference of 25.3%.

$99 First Year Special

For 72 hours only we will be running an introductory offer special for a 1 year subscription of EPIC Insights for only $99. The 72 hour special starts next Monday evening October 12th at 8:00 PM EST.

Note that we will never offer the service for $99 again, ever. As soon as the 72 hour special expires the price will move to $149 per year.

Premium Service Features

The new premium subscription service will include:

• The Weekly Sunday Newsletter (example)
• One midweek Market Summary Report with Chart Analysis (NEW)
• One midweek Bonus Stock Pick with Chart Analysis (NEW)
• DIRECT access to Sean Hannon (Author) for Q & A (NEW)

If you have any questions feel free to let us know, otherwise get ready to make more money in this market with EPIC Insights Premium.

Our article, Is it Time to Get Bullish on the US Dollar? was the feature today which was a great and in depth piece written by Sean Hannon discussing the US Dollar and how utilizing technical analysis helps to argue the contrarian case that investors should become bullish on the US Dollar. Screenshot below.

For those who have not heard of wikinvest.com, they are an online investing encyclopedia editable by anyone. Think of them as Wikipedia but focused on just investing and the stock market. Wikinvest is also a provider of fantastic financial data in a very unique way. Read up on their latest Beta site launch and see just how Wikinvest is taking a stab at changing forever how we as investors conduct our research.

Their site is definitely worth a visit so make sure to check them out.

Now we have successfully passed 6,000 investor subscribers who are receiving the newsletter each week. As of this post we are at 6,049 total subscribers and I only expect this to continue to grow, especially with returns that blow away the market averages

• 2008 EPIC Insights Return was 6.3% vs the S&P 500’s losses of -38.5%.
• 2009 EPIC Insights Return is 16.4% (as of 8/10/09) vs the S&P 500’s return of 11.5%.

Feel free to browse the full archive of EPIC Insights issues. If you are not subscribed yet simply fill out the first option on here.

To learn more about Sean Hannon view our team page.

Many hours went into compiling data, emailing brokers, and digging through yearly broker reviews to put together easy to understand ratings. The comparison chart is broken into three sections: Fees, Ratings, and Tools & Extras:

• Fees - Find out what each broker charges for stock trades, options trades, options contracts, broker assisted trades, and if they have a minimum deposit to open an account.
• Ratings – We went through several years of SmartMoney and Barron’s stock broker reviews alongside spent hours testing many of the brokers platforms ourselves and emailing customer service reps to put together easy to understand 1 – 4 star ratings. Categories include Overall, Commissions, Trade Tools, Customer Service, and Research.
• Tools & Extras – Find out if a broker offers International trading, has a trader community, offers mobile trading, virtual trading, or an education center. We also tell you which brokers have inactivity fees for not using your account!

This project has been in the making since mid June and we are very excited to see it now fully finished. If you have any feedback for us on how we can improve this stock broker tool please let us know.

Our three favorite brokers?

1. Etrade
2. Scottrade

Check out the new page, Compare stock brokers now.

UPDATE: One last quick point, if you ever want to return to the brokers comparison chart at a future date simply click the new header tab “Stock Brokers” at the top of any page on our site. We will be updating the chart data each month so make sure to return often!

Started way back in January of 2006, currently there are 18,513 posts within 8,234 threads from a total of 6,034 members.

Summary of our main stock forum areas:

• Investing Discussion – General investment and stock market discussion
• Stock Arena – For discussing stock picks and plays.
• Stock Questions – Over 350 different stock questions have been answered. Ask the Community and get any question answered (great for new investors).
• Online Stock Brokers – Discuss stock brokers.
• Community Introductions – Introduce yourself as a new member.
• General Discussion – Talk about anything but stocks.

There is a quick link to the stock forum at the top left corner of all the pages here on the blog. If you haven’t seen the forum yet make sure to check it out and get registered as it is free and takes literally under 30 seconds (yes we timed it).

Although I see a bottom in the economy, I do not foresee an immediate resumption in growth. Instead, we will experience a long base?building period where growth remains low and economic activity sluggish. To most people, it will be difficult to differentiate between the recession and this base?building process. With little to no increase in economic activity, many will mistake this period for a continuation of recessionary conditions.

To understand my viewpoint, we need to consider two factors: the current state of the economy and the prior bubble. Some are calling the recent slight improvements in economic indicators evidence that “green shoots of recovery” are appearing. Instead, I consider them a dead?cat bounce.

By examining a few economic metrics we can detect a clear pattern. Capacity utilization rests at 69% versus a 40?year average of 81% and a typical recession low of 74%. Housing starts are at 458,000 versus a 40?year average of 1.5 million and a typical recession low of 850,000. Continuing jobless claims are 6.5 million versus a 40?year average of 2.6 million and a typical recession peak of between 4 to 4.5 million. These are but three examples of a disturbing pattern; I could pull many more. Simply, the economy has absorbed such massive shocks that to return to typical recession bottoms we would need to see marked improvement. That improvement will come, but I will not view it as recovery, but instead the journey from awful to bad. The journey from bad to good will take many more years.

The second factor that points to a period of limited growth is the nature of the most recent bubble. Throughout history, we have seen numerous bubbles cause economic dislocations that led to recessions. After a period of contraction growth resumes, the economy recovers, and the prior bubble is forgotten. Why will this occasion be different? The answer lies in the nature of the bubble and how resources were utilized.

Financial bubbles have existed since the beginning of time. Optimism causes them to inflate, greed propels prices higher, and eventually the air leaks and the bubble pops. While this pattern is standard, the aftermath varies. Consider some examples. During the 1800s both Great Brittan and the United States experienced railroad bubbles where capital poured into rail companies. When prices finally collapsed, investors had large losses, but a tangible benefit was an improvement in rail systems that allowed commerce to flourish. The recent dot?com bubble destroyed investors, but we were left with millions of miles of fiber?optic cable and increased communication capacity that had led to improved efficiency and a more connected world.

In contrast, Japan saw a massive bubble in the late 1980s focused on art and real estate. Since the increase of capital was toward assets that had little economic benefit, the bubble bursting has caused Japan to spend 20 years in an economic no?man’s land.

Looking at history, we see a clear differentiation. Bubbles centered on producing assets (i.e., railroads/technology) are painful for investors, but yield positive economic outcomes. Bubbles centered on non?producing assets (i.e., real estate) lead to long?lasting economic problems.

The credit bubble that triggered this recession was directed toward non?producing assets. Therefore, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) efforts to reflate are wasted. Until the economy redirects its resources toward more productive sources, subpar growth remains.

If my thesis proves correct, the market implications are significant. Stock markets have roared higher on the assumption that recovery is around the corner. Instead, recovery is years away. When markets realize this disconnect, prices will head lower. Absent a swift economic rebound, current price levels cannot be supported.

Sean Hannon, CFA, CFP is a professional fund manager. He runs EPIC Insights Weekly (subscribe) the free Sunday market newsletter, and is the founder of EPIC Advisors, LLC.

View All Posts By Sean Hannon.

UPDATES: This post will moving forward be updated each time this site reaches another 1000 subscribers.

The best way to relay the growth of total RSS subscribers is by breaking down the numbers per thousand new subscribers:

1. 0 subscribers (April 6th, 2006) – 1000 subscribers (December 14th, 2007) = 1 year 8 months 8 days OR 1.6 new subscribers per day.
2. 1000 subscribers (December 14th, 2007) – 2000 subscribers (January 6th, 2009) = 1 year 23 days OR 2.6 new subscribers per day.
3. 2000 subscribers (January 6th, 2009) – 3000 subscribers (March 28th, 2009) = 2 months 22 days OR 12.2 new subscribers per day.
4. 3008 subscribers (March 28th, 2009) – 4037 subscribers (April 28th, 2009) = 1 month 0 days OR 34.3 new subscribers per day.
5. 4037 subscribers (April 28th, 2009) – 5178 subscribers (May 19th, 2009) = 21 days OR 54.3 new subscribers per day.
6. 5178 subscribers (May 19th, 2009) – 5999 subscribers (June 15th, 2009) = 22 days OR 37.3 new subscribers per day.
7. 5999 subscribers (June 15th, 2009) – 7032 subscribers (June 30th, 2009) = 15 days OR 68.9 new subscribers per day.
8. 7032 subscribers (June 30th, 2009) – 8068 subscribers (August 5th, 2009) = 1 month 4 days OR 29.6 new subscribers per day.
9. 8068 subscribers (August 5th, 2009) – 9080 subscribers (September 29th, 2009) = 1 month 24 days OR 18.4 new subscribers per day.

The jump from 2000 to 3000 subscribers was extremely quick adding 1000 new subscribers in just under 90 days. Based on the above we may hit 4000 in half that time. Should be interesting!