The “easy” short term trade today would happened if the market had opened down significantly as our short term oversold indicators would have been off the charts. Instead indexes opened up modestly and build on that throughout the day. News that Russia was ending military exercises near the Ukrainian border helped lift spirits. The S&P 500 gained 1.15% and the NASDAQ 0.83%. Please note this does nothing to change the intermediate term outlook (yet) – often the strongest days up come during oversold bounces in corrections.
Reuters, citing Russia’s Interfax, reported that Russia had ended military exercises near the Ukrainian border. The war games, which began Monday, were scheduled to end Friday, according to media reports including the Guardian.
This downtrend line in purple has continued to work as a ceiling on the NASDAQ. We’ll see if any positive opening happens Monday and it is tested. With the S&P 500, until a new pattern emerges in the chart, a bull would want to see a break back above the 1960 area to resume movement above the top trend line the index had hung out for a few months.
The NYSE McClellan Oscillator jumped an enormous 60 points from the -80 range to -20 area. This is why any selloff this morning would have created an excellent and easy buying opportunity for “flippers” – we’d have hit the rare -90s area.
We’ll post some of the stronger charts in the market, with the caveat that until the overall market conditions improve risk is elevated in holding a heavy dose of stocks.
HCA Holdings (HCA) [hospital]:
AOL (AOL) – could be beginning a breakout the past few days:
Ebay (EBAY) – same story as AOL:
YY (YY) [Chinese internet]:
Have a good weekend and we’ll see you back here Monday.