STTG Market Recap Nov 30, 2012

It was a quiet day in the market to end November; the S&P 500 gained 0.02% and the NASDAQ fell 0.06% as a large buying program in the closing 20 minutes pushed stocks well off their lows.  For the month, remarkably both indexes were up despite incredible volatility.  The most important development of the day was once again both Obama and Boehner spoke, but the market basically ignored their comments as posturing as opposed to treating it as life and death.  Let’s focus on some longer term charts for the indexes, while looking at some major commodities as well.

During 2012 one can see the S&P 500 has experienced two long rallies, and two short but relatively steep corrections of ~10%.  From mid November forward we have a new phase, still to be determined.

The NASDAQ has a similar flight plan as the S&P 500 of course, but rallied far more earlier in the year and fell much more later in the year – mostly as it followed the heavily weighted stock of Apple (AAPL).

Looking at the more recent action in commodities we have a mixed bag.  Copper has finally shown some relative strength in the past two days; today’s move was credited to Codelco saying there is increased demand from China.  China of course is the world’s major consumer of just about every commodity known to man.  Copper is important as it goes into all sorts of industrial usages.

  • “There’s a lot of optimism regarding copper demand going forward,” Chief Executive Officer Thomas Keller said today in an interview in Shanghai. Demand may grow about 5 percent to 7 percent next year in China, he said, citing analysts’ estimates.

While oil has shown some life the past two days, it really has not followed along with the market the past few weeks.

Gold is sort of in no man’s land – flopping around like a fish.


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