STTG Market Recap Nov 12, 2012

Monday was a snoozer of a session as both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 barely budged; the former was barely down and the latter barely up.  The bond market was off for Veterans Day, and it seemed many in the equity markets followed suit as volume was very light.  Since there was little new movement in the major indexes we’ll take today as an opportunity to look at some longer term charts.

We can see the S&P 500 has been characterized by two long ascending channels and (now) two corrections.  The one in late spring was ~11%, and the one thus far in fall has been ~6.5%.  Interestingly both are now roughtly the same age at about 2 months old.   The S&P 500 is hovering at its 200 day moving average.

The NASDAQ has been much more choppy with a larger gain in the late winter, and a bigger drop this fall, as Apple has led this index around.  The NASDAQ – like most of the other indexes – broke cleanly through the 200 day moving average.

Gold has a relatively sinister “double top” pattern which leads to bearish outcomes.

Crude oil has had a much weaker second half of the year than first half, most likely an indicator of the weakness in the global economy.


Speaking of oil, one interesting tidbit today – the IEA predicts that by 2020 that the U.S. will pass Saudia Arabia as the world’s largest oil producer.  If accurate, it would be quite an advantage for the country.

  • The United States will overtake Saudi Arabia to become the world’s biggest oil producer before 2020, and will be energy independent 10 years later, according to a new forecast by the International Energy Agency.   The recent resurgence in oil and gas production, and efforts to make the transport sector more efficient, are radically reshaping the nation’s energy market, reported Paris-based IEA in its World Energy Outlook.
  • From 2008 to 2011, U.S. crude oil production jumped 14%, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Natural gas production is up by about 10% over the same period.


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