A Look Back at The 5 Hottest Market Trends of the Past Year
Looking back over the past 12 months there were several huge market trends in the spotlight. Big winners emerged in stock groups like fertilizers, steel, alternative energy, coal, and oil explorations before getting crushed in the recent bear market.
We here at stocktradingtogo.com like to think back to the “good-old-days” of late 07 and early 08. The commodities boom had every investor reaping huge returns with little effort. Watching leaders like POT, MTL, FSLR, ANR, and CNR soar into the sky was a never ending dream. A dream that abruptly ended with the market meltdown.
Stocks within these groups have in the last five months seen drops of 50% or more. Some investors walked away with massive profits as soon as these big name started rolling over. Others though cringe as they still look at their current holdings and whisper to themselves, “Don’t worry, it will come back…”
With the once hot trends all but over, we bid the following stocks a very dear goodbye. May they rest in peace until their trend is re-ignited some day in the future… some day…
Fertilizers
One of the best bull runs in the last two years, and from this group every investor should remember one name, Potash (POT). It’s glory run had it peaking at $241.62 on 06/19/08 and has since fallen some 70% now trading under $75. Its weekly chart lies below:
Click to View Full ChartOther big names within this group include Mosaic (MOS) stock which is off nearly 80% since its $163.25 high, Intrepid Potash (IPI) stock which is off 76% since its $76.24 high, and CF Industries (CF) stock which is off 68% since its $172.99 peak.
Alternative Energy
This group has the best potential for making a strong comeback, with the leader of the group being First Solar (FSLR). First Solar had a mind blowing run in 2007 and peaked at $317 on 5/14/08. The stock has lost over 50% of its value since that day. Weekly chart below:
Click to View Full ChartOther names include LDK Solar (LDK) stock which has fallen over 60% since its $52.40 high, A-power Energy (APWR) stock which has lost a mind boggling 83% since its $31.89 peak, and Canadian Solar (CSIQ) stock which has also lost nearly 80% of its value since its $51.80 high.
Oil Exploration, Drilling, Etc.
As oil ran to its peak above $140 a barrel numerous groups focused on the commodity simply soared. Perhaps one of the best runs came from Continental Resources (CLR) who’s stock ran nearly tripled before peaking at $83.81 on 07/11/08. Since though CLR has lost nearly 70% of its value. Weekly chart below:
Click to View Full ChartOther stocks include Chesapeak Energy (CHK) which has tumbled over 70% since its peak of $74, St Mary Land & Exploration (SM) which has shed 65% since its peak price of $65.58, Nabors Industries (NBR) which has lost 70% since its peak of $50.58, and Helmerich & Payne (HP) who’s stock is down 66% from its $77.24 high.
Steel Producers
The leader and highlight story from this great trend was none other than Mechel Steel (MTL) which saw a move of over 700% from the beginning of 2007 before peaking at $58.66 on 5/19/08. MTL has given back all its gains since its peak and has seen its stock fall a staggering 86%. Weekly chart below:
Click to View Full ChartOther stocks in the group include AK Steel (AKS) which has tumbled 83% since its peak of $73.07 and Steel Dynamics (STLD) which has lost 78% since its peak of $40.92.
Coal
The run these stocks pulled off still blows our minds to this day, and we have the charts saved for memory sake. The largest run came from James River Coal (JRCC) who’s stock ran from a 2007 low of $3.56 all the way to $62.83 which was the peak price on 6/19/08. A return of over 1700%; weekly chart below:
Click to View Full ChartOther runs included Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) who’s stock has tumbled 68% since its peak of $119.30 and Massey Energy (MEE) which has fallen 76% since its peak price of $95.70.
Some fond memories in those trends. I miss buying a stock and holding not only for a sick gain, but for over an hour…
So what’s the trend that leads us out of this? Get that and you got a great year ahead of you…
Medical products are hot right now, take a look at THOR for example which is trading near all time highs. CRY, NUVA are two others.
Wow, really are just memories now. The run FSLR had stands out in my mind especially because of the massive gaps from earnings. It had three or four phenomenal earnings calls in a row.
Great review Blain!!!
Don’t forget about the run on Gold stocks. GG, ABX, BVN all had terrific runs in late 2007 before peaking in early 08.
Coal was wild, remember JRCC and ANR? It was every damn day those stocks were banking new fresh highs. What a run!
In fact, Blain didn’t you call the tops for coal stocks?
Found it,
http://www.stocktradingtogo.com/2008/07/03/4-big-reasons-why-coal-stocks-have-climaxed/
http://www.stocktradingtogo.com/2008/06/19/coal-climax-run-caution-flag-waves/
You definitely were ontop of these trends at the time Blain, too bad there are none to cover now but bearish reversals and flags.
Great review Blain!!! Nice prediction. I will keep watching
Check out RIMM, heavy volume breakdown today looks like the stock will be testing lows below $50 this week easily!
Tech Ticker suggests Google or Apple could possibly make an offer to buy them out. I would be very interested to see that happen.
There are alot of posts on this site about GLD and GDX which are both the gold and gold miners ETFs. Interesting through all of this market chaos the dollar has actually rallied in value substantially.
Nice post, amazing how fast the majority of the stocks listed above have dropped in price. Another trend to put in the books.
Ah yes, the gold run! That was covered mostly through mid 2007, GLD had a fantastic run for sure.
yea, you did make it on to kirk – nice going..