A short rally early in the week was quickly repelled as bears continue to hold the reigns and drive the market lower. All three indices finished the session and week today well in the red, trading on heavy distribution volume. Are multi-year lows around the corner?
The worst performing index continues to be the Dow Jones Industrial, followed by the S&P 500. The NASDAQ Composite is still the strongest index which as you will see below is still holding onto its key 2400 support level. The strong names in tech like Research in Motion (RIMM) are currently the only stocks holding this index together.
Heading into next week stocks like RIMM are exactly where my attention lies. Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG), and Goldman Sachs (GS) are other key names to focus on. If these stocks, which are still technically "alive" collapse, then the last piece arguably holding this market together is gone and we may be in a whole heap of trouble.
The smart investors have been riding the commodity train as coal, oil, steel, and fertilizers all continue to be red hot. They don't need the market's bullish blessing to make money, and something tells me I want to be hanging out with them for a while longer. Yay, that sounds nice...
Hey Blaine,
We're in a down market and ou should remind folks that it's a good time to buy QID!!!
Hey Blaine,
We're in a down market and you should remind folks that it's a good time to buy QID!!!
I'm really bad at shorting the market sometimes (although sometimes it can be a bit obvious on the back of really bad #s such as the 5.5% unemployement #). Best bet I think is to luck for #s that are way out of the range in the morning reports (CPI, Philly Fed Index etc.). It's a shame that the market seems to move on speculation.
but it seemed it got worse when 3 key things happened: The housing bill, funding for Iraq and the Israel deal. I checked the news of course later on in the night (nope we are STILL not at war with Iran! GIVE ME A BREAK already market!).
Shorting the NAZ, I would recommend PSQ if you can't take that much risk or the DOG for S&P but I like QID too.
Nice write up, I usually like strong sectors but may have switched from coal a bit too early on Thu. too some Ultra Indexes hoping things will eventually get better (and some REITs). Long term plays though not trades, these are things for my IRA I'm willing to wait on 5 years out.
Still own some Nat. Gas it's somewhat working (trusts, not stock - don't want to live with the volatality).
Construction seems ok too, but I may have gotten lucky with FLR. At least companies with strong earnings don't seem to get sold down as much, but that being said, look at AAPL & MA.
I'm with you on RIMM. The run up over the past several days has been nice but expectation is REALLY high. I'm thinking about selling off half my position before earnings just to take some profits. RIMM earnings and Fed decision so close together are a little frightening.
I was hoping RIMM would hit $150, I figure there will be significant resistance at that level but if it could get a little bit closer I think that'd be a good sell level. $130 is providing some pretty good support and $140ish was resistance for a while.
Of course if the Saudis do up thier oil output, and maybe if Kuwait follows suit and crude prices drop that could be a good sign for an economic turnaround. Who knows? Reminds me of the quote "That's why it's called fishing and not catching." If anything was a sure thing then everyone would make money and no one would lose, right?
Oil is so very hard to trade.....I've given up.
Just thinking about my prior post......on sector plays
Schools perhaps?
I owned DV (Devry) from $42 and it was an absolute steal from that price. I guess my point being, when the economy stinks right now, the Educational sector can definitely be interesting. Just my gut feeling that some people will choose to go back to school during a slow period as opposed to needlessly looking for minimal employment opportunities. I think there was a recent analyst upgrade on APOL as well but was looking at Strayer Education as of late too.
The rich continue to get richer and the poor continue to get poorer as energy flourishes and financials flounder.
http://www.growyourfunds.com/2008/06/the_rich_get_richer_and_the_po.html
The time has to come sometime that financials get all the bad news in them. Not quite yet though.
Apol is in an earning run which means it could reach 60+. this is based solely on their earning record. Check it out for your self. Every q3 they always beat expectation and the stock goes up as high as 80. i bought some call last week for jun 60, it already up, but its just a virtual trade.
Rough day so far for APOL, nice setup though so Id say it has potential. To be honest with this market anything is possible...