Unemployment, The Perfect Recession Indicator
A must read by Barry Ritholtz over at the Big Picture citing the connection between a jump in unemployment and recessions.
“Since 1953, this indicator has a perfect record, identifying 9 out of 9 recessions. When it flips negative (year over year), the economy is already in recession each and every time.”
Read Barry’s article, A Perfect Recession Indicator.
After Friday’s market performance I am thinking the market is beginning to believe it too.
More on this topic
(What's this?)
David Rosenberg: Two Years of Jobless Recovery Ahead
(GreenLightAdvisor Views, 7/1/09)
The End of the Recession: A New Indicator Predicts With Startling Accuracy
(Investment U, 5/26/09)
Unemployment Rises, Payroll Losses Far Exceed Analysts’ Estimates
(Money Morning, 7/2/09)
In all honesty mate – it amazes me that people still do not realize we have been in the beginning of a very serious recession. I’ve been calling this for 9 months.
Cheers to that – My dinner conversations only get more furious as time goes on about how the market has been off on its pricing
.