Simple Bet Against the Market With QID

For the short term bear like myself I have a trade you may find interesting - I am making a small bet that the NASDAQ 100 is not going to make higher highs and surpass 2051. It instead will trend back down to 1960ish.

QID is currently trading at $37.42 which is the ultra short ETF of the Qs. Basically, when the market goes down, this ETF goes up double relative to the QQQQ.

I bought a small position of QID here at $37.42, and placed my stop limit order at $36.75 (about my standard 2%). The key number for the QID is $36.81, because if the ETF falls below this price it means the NASDAQ 100 has made higher highs. Target price for this trade is $40 - $41.

Here is a chart so you can see the trade visually. Odds on this play are maybe 25%, so bet accordingly if you wish to participate. Feel free to view my trading rules for help.

qid-053008.png

More on this topic (What's this?)
More BuyWrite
QQQQ Chart - April 25, 2008
Read more on NASDAQ-100 Index, PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 at Wikinvest
-- Posted by Blain Reinkensmeyer on May 30, 2008 at 11:03 am --

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Comments on "Simple Bet Against the Market With QID" are closed unless our forms appear below.
Comment by theWild1
2008-05-30 19:57:34

I always like these funds that help avoid shorting.

Comment by Blain Reinkensmeyer
2008-05-31 12:29:03

agreed - gotta love the ETFs.

 
 
Comment by RayJMan
2008-06-01 07:30:37

I played the SKF about a week ago, but didn’t see that much upside honestly. I think financials are so beaten up already, that there may not be more room to go down, but you never know.
Good call on the QID I think. Tech seems to be overbought at this point, it may make more upside yet. I was considering buying puts on the QLD.

 
Comment by Woodshedder
2008-06-02 00:05:29

Blaine, depending on when you are planning on selling, I give this about 50/50 odds, which aren’t bad considering you will cut losses quickly. I am going to get some also, in the a.m. Good trading to you.

Comment by Blain Reinkensmeyer
2008-06-03 16:52:51

Did you grab a position? Crazy day today.

 
 
2008-06-02 16:41:25

[...] those who took up my offer to buy some QID last Friday, you are now in a fantastic position. QID was up over 2% today, and you now can to take your 2% [...]

 
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