Blain’s Nightly Stock Picks, March 12 2008

With the market rallying 4% yesterday it is very easy to become bullish and think the market has bottomed. The facts though tell a different story.

When it comes to the stature of our economy, absolutely nothing has changed since yesterday besides a gov plan to add another $200 billion back into our system. The market was already oversold, and for a 4% bounce overall volume on the day was hardly anything to cheer about.

I think this is your opportunity to take profits. Until the market can PROVE a sustainable rally, my overall sentiment remains confirmed downtrend.

Tonight alongside the indices I have some great insight on Gold stocks moving forward and several oil stocks you should put on radar.

NASDAQ Composite

Nothing changes until we get another heavy accumulation day to break out of this new trading range. And even then my sentiment would only change slightly as the 50 day moving average is coming down fast.

S&P 500 (SPY)

Same deal for the S&P, no party hats until we see more accumulation.

Gold Stocks

The following four stocks are all related to Gold in order of their importance. Simply put GLD and GG trade mostly in sync, so if GLD breaks to new highs GG should go with it. GLD for those who may not know is the ETF tracking the price of the gold bullion.

Below GG you will find stocks AUY and GOLD, which are in a bearish stance at the current moment BUT have a history of FOLLOWING the movement of GLD and GG. THUS, if GLD and GG break out again, you have a good bet at AUY and GOLD following suit. “Ca-peesh?”

Streettracks Gold Trust (GLD)

An established trading range for GLD, and based on this this ETF has a high probability of breaking to new highs again. Especially if the market continues its old ways (and no I don’t mean rallying). Don’t do anything with GLD again until it breaks one way or another.

Goldcorp (GG)

Trading range established, look for GG to trade in sync with GLD.

Yamana Gold (AUY)

AUY and GOLD (below) have come under pressure from institutions selling off (also known as distribution days). Both are close watchers until GG and GLD can define the next trend for gold moving forward.

Randgold Resources (GOLD)

Read AUY for analysis.

Hess Corp (HES)

With oil climbing to nearly $100 today of course this Oil company has shot up with it. The sad part is that I got stopped out under $94, damnit anyway…

Latest buy point was the break past $99.30 which came today on yet again increasing institutional volume. All we need now is an uptrending 50 MA and watch out.

Original buy point on HES was $94 back in mid February.

Helmerich & Payne (HP)

HP and DO (below) are drilling companies which both have gloomy outlooks at the current moment. The reason I bring them up is because I have mentioned DO as a buy if it breaks $126. How else can I say this… umm… Don’t do it?

Both of these stocks have seen strong distribution over the last few weeks and look more promising as short prospects then long term buys.

With that said, HP is only considered a buy if it can break $45 on some intense volume of 2 million shares + .