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Sunday Night Market Insight, March 09 2008

Posted by Blain Reinkensmeyer
March 9, 2008 at 4:16 pm

With the negative economic reports continuing to flow in, the market sold off throughout last week. The NASDAQ has lost 5.1% in the last six trading days, and many economists believe we are in a recession.

If you didn’t read my post from Friday I would suggest doing so, it should help. This week the focus is all on being disciplined and expecting anything. Extreme price volatility is almost guaranteed again this week.

The Market

- Overall market is still in a Confirmed Downtrend.

- NASDAQ Composite tested January lows Friday. The index has fallen 5.1% in the last six trading days.

- S&P 500 has not yet tested its January lows. Is this week the week?

- Recently weak economic reports suggest they will continue to have a negative effect on the market.

What You Should Know

I stated last Sunday on Fertilizers, “Keep a close eye on Fertilizers this week. POT, MOS, CF, and more all had two key distribution days last week, though they all have held up price wise. This is another group that may need a rest, and taking profits is not a bad choice.” POT, MOS, and CF all had heavy distribution days to finish the weak and have even collapsed into their bases (POT still is holding up).

From last Sunday on Gold, Gold stocks are hot, and should only continue to get hotter with another rate cut around the corner. Stocks like GG, GOLD, AUY, etc. are ones to closely monitor.” These stocks have been holding up really well for the market weakness, and heading into this week alongside Steel are the strongest picks.

Steel is a sector to closely watch this week. Specifically MTL, STLD, and AKS are my favorites from this group.

In this significant of a downtrend I do not take any new positions, and I cut my position allocation to 50%. Read my post from Friday for more details.

3 Tips to Keep in Mind This Week

These tips are the exact same as last Sunday and saved me my ass this past week. In case you missed them here they are again, and they are just as relevant this week as they were last week.

  1. Tight stops in a down trending market are not just smart, they are critical.
  2. Sitting in cash is not stupid.
  3. Discipline is the way of the successful investor.

3 ETFs Worthy of Any Portfolio

DBC, GLD, SLV

See you tomorrow night.

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Comment by RayJMan Subscribed to comments via email
2008-03-10 15:39:34

One useful way I’ve found on disciplining myself….absolutely limit orders or buy/stop orders. NO market orders (unless you like giving your broker $$$ to hand over). I don’t trade options, and setting the stops (albeit they can become high maintenance) there are a lot of factors to consider, mostly market & price volatility.
I like the notes on tight stops. I’ve also begun setting my “buy” price around these conditions on the buy stop trigger and wait until some momentum kicks in on the stock. If the momentum is not there, the stop is simply not triggered to buy the security.

I completely agree the market right now is Continued Downtrend. I bought some stock into a rally then found myself a little off and suffering once I did not scalp right away after the market turned, so I’ll at least be looking for at least some momentum before purchasing, whether it be a couple of market up days or some positive/substainable item coming from the financials, but alas so far no luck last 2 weeks.

Comment by Blain Reinkensmeyer
2008-03-10 21:56:58

I strictly only use limit orders or stop limit orders, this is an excellent point and I am surprised I haven’t mentioned it here on the blog already. Thanks for pointing that out Ray.

 
 
Comment by Jim
2008-03-10 17:20:52

I just had a trailing stop sell go off on AUY this morning. Maybe I should have held it in advance of the Fed’s supposed cut… at any rate, I hope that the price might fall under 17 where I can pick it up very quick roll

Comment by Blain Reinkensmeyer
2008-03-10 21:58:14

I’ve found that most of these gold stocks already have the rate cuts factored in. If anything a 3 quarters point cut (though that is now highly probable as well) might trigger a quick rally.

 
 
Comment by RayJMan Subscribed to comments via email
2008-03-10 17:32:55

I used to own POT (not now thankfully), and it just amazes me how these have come down (even the small and mid caps).
One note that makes sense to me after watching the news, is that many are having to sell their winners to make up for the losers (imagine a portfolio with a fincancial stock [leaving company names out of course to retain autonomy hehe] & POT), your only winner.
The margin calls on hedge funds got really bad from what I can understand introducing more volatality into the market, so I’m awaiting a correction at this point and admittedly, although I missed some short spurts am about 75% cash at this point.

 
Comment by RayJMan Subscribed to comments via email
2008-03-10 17:34:56

good call on the ETFs btw, and these are less volatile then individual stocks (which is why the options differ as well I always thought)…

 
2008-03-16 20:29:09

[...] Not much has changed from last week. [...]

 
2008-03-27 08:27:47

Your blog is good and it discussed about economic affects.
What is ‘Recession Proof’?

You can almost hear the wallets snapping shut. Folks are cutting back on their spending every way they can. According to those who know, we are either in a recession, or are about to be. I would hate to be trying to sell real estate or new cars right now. Talk about hitting your head against the wall. Ouch!

That got me to thinking of what businesses make sense during a recession. Certainly health care does. Baby boomers are going to need every kind of health care imaginable. For all I know, economic bad times makes people sick too.

Other types of businesses that should be recession proof include vital home repairs, like plumbing, electrical, and roofing. Folks can’t put off fixing a clogged toilet or a leaking roof just because they’re a little short on cash.

And you know what they say about death and t.ax.es. A well-run funeral home or a tax consulting business shouldn’t be hurt by an economic downturn.

But all these jobs require training, and even certification. And that takes time. By the time you’ve learned one of these trades, the recession may well be over. That got me to thinking about one business that’s truly recession-proof, and you can get started almost immediately: Day Trading.

Day Trading refers to the buying and selling of stocks within the same trading day. I know what you’re thinking: how can a day trader be successful when the stock market is down, day after day? Well, day traders profit from volatility - when there are big swings in stock prices, there is money to be made.

It used to be that Day Trading was only done by financial institutions with access to technology and information. Now, almost anyone with Internet access can become a day trader, if they know what to do.

Manny Backus

 
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