Nightly Stock Picks, February 20 2008
Today was a great day for Steel, a good day for Fertilizers, and another strong day for Oil as a whole. These three groups are leading the market right now, and the market’s positive day only helped push stocks higher.
Let’s take a look at today’s action, starting first with a look at the overall market.
SPY (S&P 500)
Interesting base forming on this index and today’s price action pushed out of it. Good volume but not a strong close. I am looking for a heavy volume close at or very near the highs before I get excited.
A K Steel (AKS)
Barely broke my $49.50 buy point yesterday but today the stock had increasing volume and moved up 5.5% to a close of $51.30. Next resistance should come around $54 and new highs.
Steel Dynamics (STLD)
STLD opened yesterday at $56.01 and ran above $59 before closing just under $58. Today the stock traded higher volume then yesterday and closed just under $60. STLD is up 7% from my $56 buy point.
Transocean (RIG)
Earnings came out this morning and at first the stock was slow to find direction but then took off to my $133.50 buy point with ease. RIG closed up 9 points today, or 7%, to $138.73 on demanding volume. Look for higher prices to come.
CF Industries (CF)
I have covered fertilizers closely here on the blog over the last few weeks, and CF is just one example of success. Original buy point was at $112, and my second buy point on CF was with a break to new highs above $121. The stock didn’t get a good follow through day today, but nonetheless is looking good with a close today of $127.
Potash Corp. (POT)
POT leads the fertilizers, and with today’s close of $156 is sitting comfortably above our $145 buy point.
Mosaic Company (MOS)
If you’ve missed the memo here on Stock Trading To Go lately, I will say it again, fertilizers are hot. MOS was originally a buy with a break above $101. The stock closed today at $114.04, up some 13%+ since its original buy point.
Devon Energy (DVN)
Probably one of the best breaks I’ve seen in a while, DVN not only broke on heavy volume yesterday, but proceeded to add to its gains and show even more institutional support as the stock moved to a close today of $99.58. DVN was featured with a buy point of $95.
Hess Corp (HES)
HES finally broke past my $94 buy point, but on lower than average volume. Today the stock opened down and rallied back to a close of $94.41, but again on low volume. HES needs a heavy volume move for me to be really excited.
Petrolea Brasileiro (PBR)
PBR and HES lie in the same industry group, and today PBR followed up its $120 break yesterday to close at $120.54, on almost average volume. Like HES though, PBR needs to see a big up day with strong institutional support to really establish its up trend. I am cautiously optimistic 
.
really great picks.. especially AKS, which I acted on when you first suggested it.
very good picks, also there is Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) in addition to Vanguard 500 index mutual fund (VFINX) for the S&P 500
for more information on the mutual fund (if anyone is interested), check:
finance.yahoo
Exchange-Traded Funds (ETF) Center
ETF Center > ETF Education > Articles
I myself still am more of a fan of ETFs vs. mutual funds (price entry point for one), and until I check the math oompletely I probably won’t be convinced on the expense ratio breakdown they list on Yahoo.
Happy investing,
Ray
As you know, I’m not really wise on investing, but the one common thing I noticed with all the graphs are that the stocks are on an upswing. Isn’t it too late now to invest as you’re basically buying high, not low?
Obviously the caveat is that you never really can predict the highs and lows of any stock based on past performance.
Not technically, what you can do is just be patient and see if you can get shares intraday on a downswing. Take for instance STLD (refer to the chart for reference). The stock broke out past $56 Tuesday and closed at nearly $58, well to buy then that is still higher then then $56 buypoint. Yesterday morning though the stock opened above $57, and if you look closely on its chart the stock traded in the high $56s before moving all the way up to $60. Well, I missed the first day, but grabbed my shares around $56.70 on the dip yesterday morning, and now I have a great position with the stock above $60.
I am still looking to add to my position, and will just wait for either another dip or for the stock to base out again (example CF from this same post).
Hope that helps!
I’m still wondering where it will go from here, but hopefully it won’t remain flat. I like playing the volitality!
It seems as though the S&P is hitting higher lows, but…
Once the planets align…..;-) With inflation getting a little bit out of control right now, I’m still holding off a bit on buying anything bullish until there is at least some kind of positive catalyst.
Based on the market action today it looks like the NASDAQ has broken through its wedge to the downside. Unless we get some sort of rally here I suspect we should have lower prices around the corner!