Unanswered Questions
Posted by Sean Hannon
January 25, 2008 at 3:45 pm
    Trying to make sense of the markets is a never ending process. Are we headed for recession or already there? Is the Fed reflating a bubble that popped? Can policymaker intervention override free markets? We could continue these circular questions for hours. To me the most important question is whether this week represents a bottom and reversal or a dead cat bounce. For my money, I lean toward reversal (as I posted Tuesday at the open). Valuations have arrived and patient investors can pick up the shares of select companies cheaply. Will I be right or wrong? One thing I know for certain is that in the coming weeks the markets will deliver a verdict. For now, enjoy the weekend and prepare for another earnings induced stampede next week.
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I dunno Sean, I think a lot of the future will be told with the FED meeting coming next week. Will the market rally with another rate cut? I am doubtful.
Let’s say we get a rally on the NASDAQ to even 2500, you would have to be betting the downside. I wanted QID today when the NASDAQ hit 2400 but sadly I didn’t get home until just now.
I’ve been eying gold pretty closely recently, thinking that with the FED meeting stocks like GG, GOLD, and naturally GLD will continue to perform well. Have a great weekend man.
I’ve got to be doubtful hear as well. We are not going to see a massive rate cut like the one we had last week, however, that being said….it’s been a roller coaster ride this week. I almost feel like waiting in line to “pull the trigger” and then getting off feeling nauseous and tipsy. I’m still considering closing all and putting back into $$cash until this volatility closes down, but if the NAZ hits 2500 again, I’ll probably be back into QID again. If the downside happens to 2300, will plan on increasing my position in QQQQ, but overall it’s a nice bearish play if you choose both.
Per above, I’m still in line with GLD, it seems the best play at this point (even after watching the other precious metals, gold still seems like the highest growth btw) and about the only safe trade (albeit I’d be exclusive to limit orders). It will be very interesting to see how next week plays out.