Lower from Here

     What a close.  With the markets attempting to bounce from Tuesday’s Fed induced sell-off, today was key.  The past two days the market finished higher, but the technical scene deteriorated.  Now a nasty collapse leads us into the weekend.  If you’re bullish now, you have more courage than sense.  This market is heading lower and a retest of DJIA 12,500 seems attainable in the coming weeks.

     We could argue all day about why the markets should rally.  I am not believing it.  Simply, there is no reason for the big money to buy.  Traders who are paid on performance (ie - hedge funds and investment bankers) already know their year end comp.  If you do not have a gain by now, pushing in the last two weeks of the year is foolish.  If you have a gain, why jeopardize it in this market?  The better approach would be to stay out of the market for a few weeks and cash your bonus check.  With a lack of buyers, lower prices are ahead.

More on this topic (What's this?)
The Santa Claus Rally
Dow Jones 10 Year Chart - December 19, 2008
Read more on Dow Jones Industrial Average at Wikinvest
-- Posted by Sean Hannon on December 14, 2007 at 4:04 pm --

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Comments on "Lower from Here" are closed unless our forms appear below.
Comment by My Trader's Journal
2007-12-14 16:16:59

Yep, that was a nasty afternoon today. I’ve also noticed the VIX hasn’t come back up too much. Looks there’s still too much optimism out there.

 
2007-12-14 16:57:11

I pretty much agree. I’ve been cash for over a month but I got into some short sell positions today since I’m becoming increasingly bearish on the market.

 
Comment by Blain Reinkensmeyer
2007-12-14 17:10:20

Agreed. No point in taking any unnecessary risks. A strong cash portfolio, day trading, and a few short positions should make for a well balanced portfolio.

 
Comment by thewild1
2007-12-14 18:31:33

i agree with you… the market is going nowhere for the rest of the year

 
Comment by Bryan
2007-12-15 00:08:47

Well now if the general consensus is no Santa Claus rally in the cards, maybe it’s time to go contrarian?

I think FedEx is reporting next week, Goldman is reporting, RIMM is reporting, lots of big names. It’ll be interesting to see how the market responds to their earnings and their forecasts for next year.

 
Comment by Aaron
2007-12-16 11:03:23

I have to agree with you. The only hope we have is what Bryan speaks of, some terrific earnings reports. GS and RIMM are probably the best hopes of having at least one or two strong days next week.

 
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