Stock Analysis – FXI, MA, FSLR, WM

This report includes investment analysis for the following stocks: Ishares FTSE/Xinhua China ( FXI ), Mastercard ( MA ), First Solar ( FSLR ), and Washington Mutual ( WM ).

FXI ETF Analysis

Yesterdays strong accumulation day push through the 50 day moving average was a big technical victory for the fund, and signals higher prices ahead. FXI which is the ETF tracking the China 25 Index closed yesterday at $195.74 and being down early on today back sitting at a live quote of $192.94 is a perfect buy candidate. Check out the chart for more detail, but buying the stock for simplicity sake at $192.90, a stop loss at $179.90 or 5.2% below your purchase price is more than sufficient. Your initial target price should be $210 which would fill the November 5th gap.

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Mastercard Stock Analysis

Those who talk to me throughout the day know I am bullish on financial services as a industry group. The leaders and more well known names IMO all mean business. MA is a big leader right now, but also included are the liked of CME, NDAQ, ICE, and the “up and coming” NYX.

Back to Mastercard though, the stock today intraday has broken out to new highs above last week’s mark of $206.43, high on the day today is $208.18. MA stock now real time quote is sitting at a last of $205.51 and for those who like to play their cards conservative, a stop at $193.90 should be sufficient which is about 5.6% below a purchase at the last of $205.51 (you could extend this to 7 or 8% if desired). Especially if the group continues to do well, watch out because MA will be amongst the leaders on a role.

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First Solar Stock Analysis

This is a tougher stock to give true insight on for the short term future, but for those who’ve been following this blog have already seen First Solar as a great play not once for success, but twice.

FSLR’s most recent push above $230 highs set on November 8th was quickly reversed and finished off with a strong distribution day on December 4th as the stock tumbled back into its base. This could be a sign that the stock is nearing what could be a top not seen again for months.

There are no short term strong buy signals on FSLR, and if you really want a position you are buying on speculation that the stock will simply continue its amazing run, which it may very well do. Short term there is more of a bearish aroma surrounding the stock, and taking any profits and playing the patience game for a better opportunity may not be a bad idea. The stock needs more horizontal work.

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Washington Mutual Stock Analysis

WM is one of those stocks that you shouldn’t touch due to the heightened risks of the subprime crisis. But, if and when the technical indicators reveal the correct signals it could be a stock yielding a few quick bucks. WM stock is right now at a real time last of $18.78 and is a play to the upside with two plausible scenarios, one more safe than the other.

The first opportunity is to buy WM right now in this range of $18.50 to $19, and set a initial target price of $19.50. Your stop should be tight, and a good price is $18.05, which just undercuts yesterday’s lows. The second opportunity and possibly more safe way to go is to wait until WM can push back above $20, and grab the stock with a limit price of $20.01. Your stop would be dependent on how WM made its move to $20.01.

The X-factor that has been pointed out by Jack who is also a writer on the blog is that WM has seen some good support from insiders buying stock at these levels. Whether or not they know something we don’t is for time to determine.

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Comments

  1. says

    You have two charts up for FSLR. I also think that its still to early to call a top on FSLR, the whole sector is hot and its the leader.

  2. Bryan says

    Wow analysis on 3 stocks I’m following… thanks.

    I picked up FXI about 15 points ago, I don’t think China is ready to jump the shark quite yet and I think FXI is still a solid play. I’ll be a happy camper if it fills that gap you pointed out.

    FSLR’s run has just been amazing. 600%+ over the year? I shoulda bought it at $25… or at $45… or at $125… sigh. It takes a braver man than I to call a top in that monster. I saw an article on Seeking Alpha yesterday that was speculating FSLR along with SPWR getting added to the NASDAQ 100 in their annual reshuffling. If that’s the case, any funds tied to that index will have to buy shares to rebalance. Could create short-term demand over the next month or two. At least that was the reasoning behind the article. Maybe it’s a short-term play? I don’t know, but even though it’s the sector leader I’d be scared to hold it for long as it’s been one hell of a run.

    WaMu I bought a small position when it was yielding near 10% figuring it couldn’t drop much lower and the yield would make up any future drop. Whoops. At least it was a small position. Recent action looks like it’s bottoming, which would be nice. WM and WB both have had insider buying lately, which is a good sign.

  3. says

    WM is confusing. Given how badly it has been beaten down, you would think it is due for a relief rally at least, but even in the best of tapes like today, it barely moves. CFC moves 16%, WM 2%. I would have thought WM would be good for a move of 5% or so at least.