Roy from marketprobability.com has asked me to conduct a review of his site which offers trade ideas daily based on a computerized model which scans thousands of stocks a day, and gives you the best stocks based on their probability for sucess.

Straight from the site about page, “MarketProbability is an internet-based quantitative engine. For each stock in our database, we apply a proprietary statistical model in order to evaluate the collective predictive power of an expansive set of technical indicators. We then present to the user only those stocks that exhibit a high likelihood of trade success over a user-specified hold period.” This comes with a big disclaimer though, “MARKETPROBABILITY MAKES NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE.”

Two Tools Offered, Do They Work?

MarketProbability offers two tools for use, the SectorCheck and the MarketOddsPro. My favorite between the two is the sectorcheck tool because it actually is pretty useful. What you do is type in a stock symbol, and the software spits out a slew of data associated with the sector the company is based in.

• Today’s Top 5 Industries
• Today’s Bottom 5 Industries
• Today’s Sector Results (highlights that stock’s sector)
• Today’s Industry Results (highlights that stock’s industry)
• Sector Breakdown
• Industry Breakdown

The market probability tool on the other hand just spits out trades based on the system and has three variables, trade time (1 - 5 days), how many picks to list, and what data you want to use (5 minute delay or yesterdays). The reason I am not so pumped about this tool is the fact that I don’t know if I trust it so much. Read on to see what I mean.
The first question I asked myself, does this system actually work?

According the to the system’s historical back tests, there are numerous graphs and charts illustrating the different variations of the system (which runs in 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 day basket setups) showing financial success over a period of time. All of these tests were conducted though in a simulated environment, which means they cannot take into affect important factors such as liquidity.

What really is missing from the site are product testimonials. If Roy could show me pictures of ten people who have used his system for the last year and have seen triple digits profits utilizing it, then I would be impressed. Even better, if Roy launched a blog on the site and just listed a recap of all his trades daily and showed us how much money he has made using just the system (backed with trade history), I would buy it without hesitation. Roy does a good job of explaining the product and showing how it works, but not showing truly how successful it actually is.

Ordering the Product, or Lack There Of

A glitch that should be taken care of right away comes when you go to order the actual product. Take a look first at the image below which is shown if you are a new visitor doing a screen with the MarketOddsPro tool:

Now, you would think all of those subscribe links would take you to the order page to purchase the product. Instead, they all simply take you back to the homepage with a big “welcome!” on the top. Worse yet, even the “Register Now!” button at the top left corner of the site takes you to the homepage. To be honest, I don’t even know how much the product costs. If Roy wants to sell a few subscriptions I would suggest getting the order page setup properly.

Major Pointers and Some Ideas For Roy

If Roy really believe in his product and what he is trying to sell, he should get some testimonials up with himself possibly being the biggest one. I would slap a big picture of my face on the site, below that an audited number showing off the hundreds of thousands of dollars Ive made using the tool, and then a big fat order button below that. It would be a sure sale (if it actually goes to the sales page). First thing is first, get that order page up and get those testimonials listed so we aren’t looking at just charts and graphs.

A wild idea but one that could possibly yield more down the road would be to simply make both tools (the whole site) completely free. Leverage the data to draw in the viewers, and then sell adspace throughout the site. The more tools Roy adds the better the site becomes, and if they really are superior in making money they will surely draw in investors. Word of mouth would spread and before you know it everyone is going to Roy’s site for research, why? Because Roy is the only one with the tools since he created them himself. The “make everything free and sell adspace” concept is really big now a days.

Overall I think Roy has some good offerings at his site, marketprobability.com, but to get to the next level he needs to prove to us his product works with real life examples. I personally found the SectorCheck tool useful, and if Roy can start pumping more of these tools out unique from other sites, he may be onto something big down the road.

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