6 William O’Neil Rules For Short Selling

Posted by Blain Reinkensmeyer
September 13, 2007 at 7:42 pm

I just finished reading another William O’Neil book, How To Make Money Selling Stocks Short (purchase), and in the book he listed six great rules for selling stocks short.

This list below can be found in the book on pages 32 and 33, which I definitely recommend reading. The whole back half of the book is stock charts with straight forward technical analysis of big runners that become great stocks to short. Some of the charts were more easy to read than others but the main concepts were what mattered.

6 Rules for Short Selling, William O’Neil

  1. The general market should be in a bear trend, and preferably in a position that is relatively early in the bear trend. Shorting stocks in a bull market does not offer a high probability of success, and shorting stocks very late in a bear period can be dangerous if the market suddenly turns to the upside and begins a new bull phase.
  2. Stocks that the would-be short seller has identified as candidates for short sales should be relatively liquid. They should have sufficient daily trading volume so as not to be subject to rapid upward price movement if the stock experiences a sudden rush of buyers that can result in a significant short squeeze. A general rule of one million shares or more traded per day on average is a reasonable liquidity requirement.
  3. Look to short former leaders from the prior bull cycle. Stocks that offer the best short sale opportunities in a bear market rend to be the very same stocks that led the prior bull phase and had huge price run-ups during the bull market.
  4. Watch for head & shoulders top formations (explained and shown in the book) and late-stage, wide, loose, improper bases that then fail. These are your optimal short sale chart patterns.
  5. Look to short former leaders five to seven months or more after the stock’s absolute price peak. Often, the optimal shorting point will occur after the 50-day moving average has crossed below the 200-day moving average, a so-called “black cross,” and this may take several months to develop. Once a former leading stock has topped, monitor it closely and be prepared to take action when it signals an optimal shorting point.
  6. Set 20-30% profit objectives, and take profits often!

This list could make you millions if you follow its core guidelines. Three out of four stocks follow the overall market trends, so it is no wonder that shorting only in a bear market is the best way to go (unless you day trade stocks of course). Another point mentioned in the book not listed above was a comment Mr. O’Neil made regarding how you should set cover stops at half your normal rate. So, say you usually set stops at 8% below your purchase point, Mr. O’Neil recommends you set your cover stop 4% above your short price. The reason being is because shorting is a more delicate and disciplined game where do you do not want to get burned.

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Comment by Aaron
2007-09-13 23:28:24

Shorting a stock is most certainly a completely different animal than simply going long a common stock. Tight stops should be the norm in shorting, as you said, because there is far more potential to get burned when shorting. I think #2 from the list is extremely important as well, you must short stocks that are very liquid!

 
Comment by Jonathan
2007-09-14 04:40:32

In terms of execution, what’s your experience been getting the uptick rule removed? I haven’t done much shorting this summer. I ‘m curious to see what kind of impact intraday this will have.

 
Comment by Kavit Haria
2007-09-14 08:06:48

For the inexperienced trader, what does it mean by shorting?

Comment by Blain
2007-09-14 15:10:22

Good question, read this post for an introduction,

http://www.stocktradingtogo.com/2006/03/22/selling-stock-short-explained/

that should help grin

 
 
Comment by Mikel
2007-09-14 09:41:04

I am aware of these chart patterns but not exactly how to analyze them. I guess If I get the book i’ll have a better idea! The idea of shorting scares me in that there is unlimited potential for losses….

Comment by Blain
2007-09-14 15:12:10

make sure to use stops to spare the agony!

 
 
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