Can Monday bring the markets in for a pullback?
Friday left us with a nice green advance on the markets and the Dow at all time new highs. The S&P 500 at highs we haven’t seen since September 2000 and the Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq Composite just under the 2007 highs made a few weeks ago. Friday’s volume on the NYSE was the highest we have experienced since March 16th. Option expiration generally does help volume pick up and March 16th was expiration in March’s which was quadruple expiration. Nasdaq’s volume also impressive and fell just shy of the volume we had on March 21st, which was FOMC announcement on rates.
Another big week for earnings ahead for the markets and after last weeks advance, we may see things quiet down. Economic data for the week ahead will be steady with the biggest piece on Friday (GDP). Bernanke speaks mid week, which is doubtful to hold any surprises, but we’ll see what comes our way. Monday’s action will need to digest Friday’s late day exuberance, this can happen with sideways action or a pullback. Volume is also likely to be lighter and start the talk of “sell in May and go away†as April is starting to come to a close. There is no question we are extended up here and some profit takers may step in. But don’t just start shorting, there is still plenty of fuel to push the market and small pauses could remain in play until the upside finally pulls in. A gap up Monday could give us an exhausted move, but I am assuming the normal Monday’s merger mania gives the markets some action.
Economic Data for April 23 – 27 Monday nothing due out, Tuesday 10:00 Consumer Confidence, 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 10:00 Richmond Fed Index, Wednesday 08:30 Durable Orders, 08:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 10:00 New Home Sales, 10:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks, 10:30 Crude Inventories, 12:30 Fed Governor Mishkin Speaks, 02:00 Fed’s Beige Book, Thursday 07:30 Fed Reserve Bank Pres Yellen speaks, 08:30 Initial Claims, 10:00 Help Wanted Index, 10:30 Nat Gas Inventories, Friday 08:30 GDP-Adv, 08:30 Chain Deflator Adv, 08:30 Employment Cost Index, 10:00 Mich Sentiment Rev.
Some earnings for the week: Monday pre market ACI, LLL, NVS, and after the bell ALTR, AMGN, BSX, ESRX, LNCR, TXN, VLTR, WCN. Tuesday pre market AKS, AL, T, BJS, EAT, CP, COH, DD, ELN, ESV, FRX, JBLU, LXK, LMT, NOC, OXY, PCAR, SEPR, STTX, X, USAP, and after the bell ADVS, AMZN, CAKE, OSG, PNRA, PXLW, RFMD, SMTL, SSTI, STM, SUNW, VFC, VECO, WEBX, WBSN, XL. Wednesday pre market EYE, AMG, APU, ATMI, BHI, BA, COP, GLW, EXC, FCX, GD, GENZ, ISE, LPX, NSC, OSTK, PFCB, R, TASR, TIN, UAUA, UPS, WLP, XTO and after the bell AFFX, AKAM, ACL, AAPL, BOBJ, CTXS, FFIV, FISV, HLIT, LSI, MXIM, MTH, MIPS, PMCS, PHM, QCOM, RMBS, RYL, VARI, VAR, WEN, XLNX, ZMH. Thursday pre market MMM, AET, BZH, BMY, CAH, CRA, CFC, CY, DO, DOW, DSPG, XOM, F, HAL, HET, IMCL, LVLT, ERIC, MHO, MESA, MEH, MNST, MPS, NCR, NEM, NYX, HOT, SU, SPWR, TSM, TRA, LCC, VLO, XMSR, ZOLL, and after the bell ACTU, BIDU, BRCM, DECK, DRIV, BOOM, ELX, KLAC, LSCC, LPNT, LAVA, MFE, MCHP, MSCC, MSFT, ONNN, OSIP, RACK, RADS, SNDK, SWIR, SOHU, SYNA, ULTI, UHS, VSEA, VLCM, YRCW. Friday pre market AT, CVX, CVH, CMI, FLIR, IR, GAS, ZEUS, OCR, SPG, SSCC, TOMO, VMSI, WMI and after the bell CCJ, GHCI, MSTR.
Compx (Nasdaq composite) closed +21.04 at 2526.39. Support: 2517.16, 2515.24, 2511.08, 2504.63, 2494.23. Resistance: 2528.60, 2532.24 (years high), 2536.86, 2542.75, 2585.78, 2600.37. Daily chart below
Monday we have to be slow to react and don’t get in a rush to push buttons. Let the market setup and don’t get caught using the rush in mentality.
