Tug of War markets, will it end Thursday?
Wednesday did nothing more than wind around and basically not move. We closed slightly green on the day with very light volume which has dropped back under the 50dma. We are definitely getting shortened week action, which means lack of action ahead of a holiday. Keep in mind we just closed out the first quarter and have a lot of time to get things rolling. This leaves the market lacking in excitement but with earnings season kicking off next week it will not stay this slow.
Technically speaking the lack of movement means not a lot changed today. So what did change is the Dow cleared the swing high by a hair, but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are still just under this resistance. You can see this on the individual charts below. The lid these swing highs are keeping on us is a good indication of the chop and how the market is in no hurry to get far. Banks are playing one step forward and one step back for us this week, closing the day back under the 200dma. This action feels like we are on a merry go round marking time to pass through this holiday week.
Thursday closes out the week of trading to leave us with no equities on Friday and limited time for futures. With the pre market data both Thursday and Friday our volatility should pick up. The bulls have been a force this week leaving us up even with poor economic data. However, the jobs data is the big stuff this week and with no equities trading Friday. Thursday is likely to position ahead of that. The market has all but flatlined this week and leaving us with a lot of time to watch the paint dry. The bias is still bullish on the market, I would like to see a gap down off Initial claims to let the market then climb up to finish the week strong. But that just may not happen and we have to stay on our toes as we approach the swing high resistance on the Nasdaq and S&P 500. Semi’s were stronger than financials today which is like tug of war and helped to hold us in range. Until we see that change the tug of war will continue.
Economic Data for the week of April 2 – 6 Thursday 08:30 Initial Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Report, Friday US markets closed for Good Friday (early futures trading only open all night and until 9:15 am eastern Friday morning, equities are closed) 08:30 NonFarm Payrolls, 08:30 Unemployment Rate, 08:30 Hourly Earnings, 08:30 Average Workweek, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories, 15:00 Consumer Credit.
Some Earnings for the Week: Thursday pre market STZ, MTRX and after the bell RSTO, WDFC. Friday there is nothing of interest and the equities markets are closed.
NDX (Nasdaq 100) closed +5.43 at 1801.74. Support: 1785.02, 1781.79 (50dma), 1773.33 (fills gap), 1768.80, 1759.41, 1748.05, 1739.48, 1731.88. Resistance: 1807.43 (swing high), 1810.30, 1821.40. Daily chart below
SOX (semiconductor) closed +4.42 at 473.02. Support: 471.40 20dema, 469.87 50dma, 468.60 (fills gap), 466.97. Resistance: 474.82, 475.49 (fills gap), 476.65, 477.27,479.18.
Let’s finish the week by trying to find the pockets of volatility and not pushing trades. Holiday weeks are rarely my favorite time to trade, but eventually they do move so let’s hope that day is tomorrow.
