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Market commentary for Wednesday, March 28, 2007
Posted by Teresa
March 27, 2007 at 9:46 pm
Tuesday brought another narrow range slow day. Red across the board, but overall very quiet day. The market is a little skittish ahead of Fed Chairman Bernanke on Wednesday. The speech is before Congress and may clarify where he stands with rate changes in the near term. Oil closed up 63 cents to close at $62.91. Iran continues to cause some jitters on that front. Gold closed up $6.60 at $663.90 on the day.
About 35-40 minutes after the market closed, the futures went nuts and started to drop quickly. Volume did come in and push things around, news rumors surfaced that Iran had fired missiles at a US ship in the gulf. The rumors were discredited but the US State department and futures rebounded some. They are still down as I type tonight’s commentary. Beazer Homes (BZH) also found themselves in hot water and falling, apparently the FBI showed up in Charlotte at the corporate offices to investigate some possible fraud on loans. Both issues will be in focus tomorrow, with housing already floundering this just adds fuel to the fire.
Into Wednesday the focus will be Chairman Bernanke and to see if the gives any indication on what he needs to change rates and where his focus sits. He maybe just as cryptic as the FOMC statement was. But regardless of what is said, it should get us moving. So far the week has been very digestive and something short of exciting. I expect that to change, looking at a weak start and to then listen as Bernanke’s speech unwinds to enlighten us. I have no bias into the open, because he will set the markets tone. This light pullback today was not convincing of much, but is helping us to work off the divergence and overbought conditions. So it has not all been for nothing. Just going into Wednesday we need to continue to be patient and let the market unwind, not WHIP.
Keep in mind the Nasdaq composite and Dow have just dipped under the 50dma. The light volume doesn’t alarm me, but Wednesday’s close will be key for them. The S&P 500 sits just on top of it, so is not out of harms way either.
Week of March 26-30 Wednesday 08:30 Durable Orders, 9:30 Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks, 10:30 Crude Inventories, Thursday 08:30 Initial Claims, 08:30 GDP-Final, 08:30 Chain Deflator-Final, 10:00 Help Wanted Index, 10:30 Nat. Gas Inventories, 12:00 Fed Bank Pres Stern, Friday 08:30 Personal Income, 08:30 Personal Spending, 08:30 Fed Bank Pres Plosser, 09:45 Chicago PMI, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 Michigan Sentiment Rev, 12:30 Chairman Bernanke speaks.
Some earnings for the Week: Wednesday pre market APOL, GMTN, and after the bell PAYX, SONC. Thursday pre market AGE, AM, CHINA, FDO, SCS, TXI, WTSLA and after the bell FINL, SLR, TIBX. Friday pre market ARD.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Wednesday’s pivot is 1440.50, the weekly is 1431. Narrow range 8 point day kept us bored but also closing back under the 50dma (1441.25). Volume was lighter than yesterday so also slowed the action. A move into 1436 would open the door to lower ground. Up through 1446.50 would let us breath some upside air. Intra day support: 1439.75, 1438.5, 1437.25, 1436, 1434.50,1422.75, 1413.25. Resistance to look for: 1441.75, 1443.25, 1444.25, 1446.50, 1448, 1449.75, 1451-1452, 1454.75, 1455.75. 60 minute chart is below.
I hope everyone has a good day and that market finds some volatility.
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