Daily Commentary for Tuesday, March 13, 2007
Monday kicked off the day on the green side of the street. All the broader indexes closed green, one small problem was in the mix. While the NYSE was on higher volume for the rise the Nasdaq was on lighter volume than we saw on Friday. The Nasdaq opened the strongest and helped the rest of the market stabilize off the fears across the financials. The subprime lender New Century (NEW) was halted and credits cut them off upon near bankruptcy. This news sent banks lower on fears of the unknown and the impact on other lenders and even the brokers. The S&P 500 is made up of 20.7% financials so this issue is hitting the market with the uncertainty. NEW is not a big component or even in the S&P 500 it is the sympathy and the impact across the sector that caused our early weakness.
However we shrugged that early weakness off and ran up in the afternoon. The Nasdaq’s early strength failed to take out Friday’s highs and left the index just under that resistance. The Dow and Russell both traded over Friday’s highs mid day. The Dow did close just under Fridays highs along with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, while the Russell 2000 closed higher.
Crude fell on the day down $1.14 to close at $58.91. After playing pinball between 59-63 all last week this is a big relief as the bigger travel season is coming upon us. Gold fell $1.70 to close at $650.30.
After the bell today Texas Instrument (TXN) gave their quarterly update, they narrowed earnings and show some slowing. So the stock fell. Early on we can look for weakness in the semi’s and across the market. GS reports pre market and that will rule the financials performance. Leaving me to assume unless GS disappoints we’ll have to work through the weakness off TXN and look for Monday’s bulls to show up.
Economic Data for the Week of March 12 – 16 Tuesday 08:30 Retail Sales, 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto, 08:45 Treasury Paulson hosts capital mkts conference, 10:00 Business Inventories, Wednesday 08:30 Current Accounts, 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag, 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil, 10:30 Crude Inventories, Thursday 08:30 PPI, 08:30 Core PPI, 08:30 Initial Claims, 08:30 NY Empire State Index, 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases, 10:30 Nat Gas Inventories, 12:00 Philadelphia Fed, 12:30 Ex Fed Chairman Greenspan will speak, Friday Quadruple Witching Day, 08:30 Consumer Price Index, 09:15 Industrial Production, 10:00 Mich Sentiment Prel.
Some Earnings for the Week: Tuesday pre market DKS, GS, GDP, and after the bell GYMB, JCG, NGAS, SEAC, UBET. Wednesday pre market GMTN, LEH, NVAX, SMTS, SSI, OATS, and after the bell ECLG, HOTT, ISLE, PBY, HDTV, ZUMZ. Thursday pre market BSC, NT, TOMO, WGO and after the bell CTIC, PSUN, QTWW, SHFL, SIX, TRLG. Friday pre market ANN, IMAX, JRCC, KIRK.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Tuesday’s pivot is 1418, the weekly is 1408.50. Volume on the ES was lighter than Friday’s, but still nice with just under 1.2million (Friday was 1.4). ES traded within three ticks of Friday’s highs. Was a very nice left mid day to get us out of the earlier grind. Back through 1422 we can look for a 1424 test and on to 1427.75. Any drop under 1415 we are likely to see 1412.75 and onto 1410. Intra day support: 1418.25, 1416.75, 1415, 1412.75 and 1410. Resistance to look for: 1421-1422, 1424, 1427.75. 60 minute chart is below.
Monday started off the week nicely, so one down and four to go! See everyone in the morning.
