Daily Commentary for Tuesday, March 6, 2007
Monday kicks the week off with another day of selling. Volume on the NYSE outpaced Friday’s leaving a distribution day. The Nasdaq however was lighter than Friday. Very weak open on a gap down after another roller coaster overseas night. The market tried to come off the lows and did a great job of that actually, only to see rejection and eventually new lows. Gold and Crude also fell today. Crude down $1.57 to close at $60.07. Gold down $4.90 to close at $639.20. Gold just continues to take a red bath, but is nearing some support.
Going into Tuesday we are just over our first retracement off the summer lows. This is a good place to be in. Nice corrective move and good support for the market. I would look for us to find some support at these levels. This doesn’t mean we’ll stop right at them, but wiggling around them and closing above would be a nice test and give the market something to work with. Economic data is still rolling out this week and the market will remain hyper sensitive to the global markets. But the US is “the market†to set the tone. So finding some support here for a bounce would be healthy. Our next leg down is about 25 points on the S&P, Nas about 50 and the Dow about 247. So obviously it is key area for us now.
The Dow is off the highs by about 6%, Nasdaq 7.5% and S&P 500 6% off the highs we saw on February 22nd. This is pretty nice drop and in quick fashion. This is still corrective, markets correct 10% and can turn around. Historically the first few weeks in March are strong, obviously we aren’t seeing that….haha incase you didn’t notice! Data, futures rollover and 38.2% coming up quickly here. BIG week and next week March options expire.
Economic data for the Week of March 5 – 9 Tuesday 08:30 Productivity Rev, 10:00 Factory Orders, 01:00 Phil Fed Bank Pres Plosser speaks, Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 01:00 Chi Fed Bank Pres Moskow speaks, 02:00 Fed’s Beige book, 03:00 Consumer Credit, Thursday 08:30 Jobless Claims/Initial Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Inventories, 12:00 Chain Store Sales, Friday 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls, 08:30 Unemployment Rate, 08:30 Hourly Earnings, 08:30 Average Workweek, 08:30 Trade Balance, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories.
Some earnings for the week: Tuesday pre market BLTI and after the close DKS, PSS, TUTR. Wednesday pre market AEOS, BJ, SKS, TLB and after the close FL, FCEL, GDP, MAMA, MW, TIVO. Thursday pre market DIET, FS, GG, TOPT, URBN, OATS and after the bell COO, HOV, ISLE, NSM, SMTC, TRMS. Friday pre market ENCY, BIG.
SPX (S&P 500) closed –13.05 at 1374.12. Support: 1371.02 (38.2%), 1360.98, 1343.05, Resistance: 1389.98, 1403.60, 1407, 1411.70, 1417.23, 1421.22, 1430.74, 1444.30, 1461.57. Daily chart below
I hope everyone’s week started off well and continues!
