Daily Commentary for Monday, March 5, 2007
Friday closed the day red, the week also red across the broader markets. Friday’s volume was lower than Thursdays, but the weeks volume was incredible. Well over average and record setting levels. The market was a run away train to leave the VIX showing incredible levels of volatility. Also is keeping options ramped up on premiums. Our old complacency left us quickly.
Gold closed down another $21.00 on the day to close at $644.10. Making for a $42.00 loss on the week and four down sessions this week. Crude fell 36 cents to close at $61.46 on the day. Still leaving a green week but under $62.00.
Even though Friday’s drop was on lighter volume, I am thinking we need to test Tuesday’s lows now. Failure there will set us up for a full 38.2% retracement and another step lower. Daily charts, all point to Tuesday’s low as the key for us. Indicators agree with that. Moving averages on the dailies are all just converging and still bullish order, but those 10ma’s and 20ema’s are VERY close to coming through the longer term to change that view. 65 minute charts all show the moving averages in bearish order and point us lower still. Leaving us with some downside bias for at least a test of Tuesday’s lows.
Remember we can dip under that low, but still come back to close over it. So if we see that early selling, don’t just assume that low is coming or going. Day isn’t over until that bell rings to tell us if there is a break or not. So for now, lets look for that test and see if the buyers come in. Volume is likely to stay steady next week and we have big economic data throughout the week with Monday and Friday being the biggest days.
Economic data for the Week of March 5 – 9 Monday 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing Index, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing Prices, 11:00 Fed Bank Pres. Poole speaks, 02:00 Fed Governor Warsh speaks, Tuesday 08:30 Productivity Rev, 10:00 Factory Orders, 01:00 Phil Fed Bank Pres Plosser speaks, Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 01:00 Chi Fed Bank Pres Moskow speaks, 02:00 Fed’s Beige book, 03:00 Consumer Credit, Thursday 08:30 Jobless Claims/Initial Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Inventories, 12:00 Chain Store Sales, Friday 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls, 08:30 Unemployment Rate, 08:30 Hourly Earnings, 08:30 Average Workweek, 08:30 Trade Balance, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories.
Some earnings for the week: Monday pre market OMG and after the close ADCT, ESL, FNSR. Tuesday pre market BLTI and after the close DKS, PSS, TUTR. Wednesday pre market AEOS, BJ, SKS, TLB and after the close FL, FCEL, GDP, MAMA, MW, TIVO. Thursday pre market DIET, FS, GG, TOPT, URBN, OATS and after the bell COO, HOV, ISLE, NSM, SMTC, TRMS. Friday pre market ENCY, BIG.
Compx (Nasdaq composite) closed –36.21 at 2368.00. Support: 2362.74, 2359.44 (Tuesdays lows), 2333.30, 2316.82. Resistance: 2401.26, 2428.74, 2444.85, 2456.31, 2470.92, 2492.12. Daily chart below
I hope everyone has a great week.
