Daily commentary for Tuesday, February 20, 2007
Friday left us with a lackluster close and light volume across the market. Nasdaq, S&P 500 both closing red on the day and the week green. The Dow closed the day green and the week at all time new highs. Semi’s are back above the 50dma and 200dma which held us up on Monday’s test and all week kept the tech sectors moving higher. Continuing to see the SOX (semi’s) hold the 50dma (469.09) will be critical to the bulls race higher.With Monday’s holiday we are left with a short week, and light economic data to keep things quiet. Last week left us very tight ranged and wound up for a move this week. The two gap and go days last week left the market tired and in drift mode. An early pullback in Tuesday’s action should be watched, test of last weeks high on volume should also be watched. Profit takers have been few and far between lately, but that doesn’t mean as we test big levels up here again that they will not show up.
The highlight and focus of the week should be Wednesday’s data with the CPI and FOMC minutes. Inflation is still key and will not be going away anytime soon. Some positioning Tuesday into that data should allow for some movement, but don’t expect a lot quick moves.
Economic Data for the week of February 19 –23 Tuesday no data due out, 10:30 Fed Governor Schmidt Bies speaks at Duke Un., Wednesday 08:30 Core CPI, 08:30 CPI, 10:00 Leading Indicators, 14:00 FOMC Minutes, 03:25 SF Fed Bank Pres Yellen speak, Thursday 8:30 Initial Claims, 10:00 Help-Wanted Index, 10:30 Crude inventories due out, Friday 10:30 Natural Gas Report due out.
Some earnings due out for the week: Tuesday pre market AT, BBW, HD, UNFI, WMT, and after the close CROX, HPQ, MDT, ODSY, STEC, UPL. Wednesday pre market JBX, IHP, MHS, TASR, ZLC and after the close ANF, ADI, ERES, OII, OSIP, PAAS, PDLI, RUTH, SNPS, WFMI. Thursday pre market AGIX, BLDP, CMS, CDE, ESV, FSS, HMA, JCP, NEM, NBL, OMX, PTEN, QLTI, SRE, TOL, WMB and after the close BIO, CPHD, CHK, BOOM, HLTH, FLS, HRB, INTU, MWY, PSA, SBAC, LNUX. Friday pre market CCU, CTV, LOW, MCCC, GAS.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Tuesday’s pivot is 1825.75, weekly is 1813.50. Like the ES it just managed to fill the upside gap and hold there as resistance. Last weeks highs 1832 is big resistance, pullback into 1812.50 is a first retracement to look for. Intra Day support: 1826.25, 1822, 1819.50, 1812.75. Resistance: 1828, 1832, 1836.75, 1840.75, 1843.75.
SOX (semiconductor) closed -.78 at 473.13. Support: 465.88, 462.72, 460.68 (fills gap), 457.54. Resistance: 476.11, 480.38, 483.85.
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