Daily market commentary for Thursday, February 8, 2007
Written By: Teresa Appleton Stock Forum ID: Teresa
Wednesday was much like Tuesday, full of twists and turns. The Dow rallied to all time new highs only to drop and test yesterdays lows and then rebound to finish barely green on the day. The other broader indexes closed green, but also saw a sell off after hitting highs on strong tech support. Volume was slightly higher on the NYSE
Crude closed down $1.17 at $57.71 on the day. As inventories were released we saw a spike up to $59.84, again that nearing $60.00 holds the price and rejects. That is the third try through this week. Gold fell $1.40 on the day to close at $660.00. Giving up gains that were made early, much like oil.
Thursday we have a little busier day on the economic front and a busy earnings release schedule. Wednesdays early strength was staggering to me, zero pullback until we saw hours of chop to finally rollover for a pullback. The Dow picked up steam but gave it all back to test the days lows. Then rebounded back into green. The other indexes never broke down for more than an orderly pullback. The volume rising was far greater than the falling. Showing us that pullbacks are still being bought.
Unless Initial Claims in the pre market throws a wrench in the works, we will open right into resistance. So an early pullback then upside should be watched for. This is the first week in over two months we’ve not seen the weekly pivots tested on Monday or Tuesday, about 80% is on Monday. So here we are in the latter half of the week and we haven’t even come near the pivot. Showing the strength and resilience of the market. Regardless of the intra day zig and zag we are still in range. The Nasdaq is peeking over the top of the channel it has sat in, but is not clear to run yet. The Nas Composite closed right at 78.6% resistance, with the Nas 100 still lagging back, watch 1829.51.
The indexes are piercing the upper bollingers, we need some dynamic catalyst to either catapult us up and out of this range, or a decent low volume pullback to work that off. We aren’t really seeing overbought conditions because of the sideways action, but winding this tight creates a need for a lot of volume to boost us or a BIG reason. I don’t see either yet this week and with no big economic or earnings data left this week (After pre mkt initial claims) we are likely to see drift.
Economic Data for the week of February 5-9: Thursday 08:30 Initial Claims, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories, 10:30 Natural Gas Inventories, 12:00 Chain Store Sales, 04:30 Money Supply, Friday no data is due out, 08:45 St Louis Fed Reserve Bank Pres Poole speaks, 01:00 Dallas Fed Reserve Bank Pres Fisher speaks.
Some earnings for the Week: Thursday pre market AET, LNT, UHAL, CSK, DO, DJO, ESRX, FLIR, HNT, LVLT, MAR, MLM, MMS, MDTH, MLNM, PENN, PEP, Q, TBL, TOL, WLT, WMG, WMI and after the bell ANDE, BMC, BRCM, ELY, DRIV, ENER, GTW, LPNT, MFE, NAPS, PNRA, TQNT, UNTD. Friday pre market AG, CVH, HAS, MA, QMED, WY.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Thursday’s pivot is 1454.75, the weekly is 1443.75. The ES is still sitting in 1455-1457 range, it is our wall of worry. I would rather see a break of 1447.50 and into 1444 to resolve this wall issue. But the market seems determined to claw its way higher. So we look for early move into this resistance and then pullbacks to be bought for now. Intra day support: 1453.75, 1451.75, 1450.50, 1447.50, 1444, 1441.25. Resistance to look for: 1456.25, 1457.75, 1459.75, 1461, 1462.25. 60 minute chart is below.
