Daily market commentary for Thursday, January 18, 2007
Written By: Teresa Appleton Stock Forum ID: Teresa
Wednesday left the markets red across the board on higher volume, leaving distribution days. That makes for the second consecutive distribution day on the Nasdaq and first for the NYSE.  Intel provided the weak link in tech land and pushed the Nasdaq lower, banks and brokers tried to prop up the rest of the market, but to no avail closing red by days end. We still are not freefalling, and every pullback has been like pulling teeth, but once the Beige book was out some of the congestion started to clear and we pulled back.
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Crude found an up day after a rocky start and closed at $52.24 up $1.03. Early on we saw crude drop down to $50.60 which is very near the big psychological mark at $50.00. This was also just over a 20 month low which is at $50.55. Because of the Monday holiday we’ll see inventories Thursday. Gold closed up $7.40 at $633.30, anytime we see a touch of inflation data that makes the market stop and think there maybe inflation we see gold rally. So watch CPI Thursday morning for more information.
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Going into Thursday another day when a big stock disappointed the street and will put pressure on the market. Apple was off about 1% in after hours. LRCX and NVEC also down to put some early pressure. Just like yesterday if we didn’t have big data in the pre market I would say we are looking lower, but the CPI can change that easily. Also Chairman Bernanke speaks after the opening so we could have a very slow opening and stay quiet until he is finished before the Senate. Phil Fed follows that at noon to give us additional volatility. I would also expect volume to be higher given we are nearing January equities option expiration. My bias is lower unless CPI does something to ignite the buyers. After two days of digestive action we are wound to move, just need that catalyst to get us going.
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Economic Data for the week of January 15 – 19 Thursday 08:30 CPI, 08:30 Core CPI, 08:30 Housing Starts, 08:30 Building Permits, 08:30 Initial Claims, 10:00 Leading Indicators (isn’t confirmed), 10:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke to speak before the Senate, 10:30  Crude Inventories, 12:00 Philadelphia Fed, 16:30 Money Supply, Friday 08:00 Fed Bank President Lacker will speak, 10:00   Mich Sentiment Prel/Consumer Sentiment, 10:30  Natural Gas report, 01:15 Kansas City Fed Reserve President Hoenig to speak
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Some earnings due out for the Week:  Thursday pre market AIT, BK, CMA, CAL, FITB, HOG, IGT, MER, NVS, PPG, UNH and after the close COF, CREE, ETFC, FNB, IBM, ICOS, XLNX. Friday pre market C, FAST, GE, KEY, MOT, SLB, STI and WL.Â
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ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Thursday’s pivot is 1439, the weekly is 1431.50.  The ES still sits over the weekly pivot hold up as the first week in 6 weeks that the ES did not test the weekly pivot on a Monday which was our Tuesday this week. So that means we need to look for it still into Thursday. The weekly pivot also happens to now converge with 38.2% so that will be a very key area. Intra day support: 1437.75, 1436, 1433, 1430.50, 1427, 1425.75.   Resistance to look for: 1440.75, 1442, 1443.75, 1444.25, 1447.50, 1453. 60 minute chart is below.
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