Markets Rally, Don’t Be Fooled
It is a known fact that the last trading week of the year followed by the first two trading days of the new year are what we know as a “year end rally”. It consistently occurs each year, and typically you will see indices like the NASDAQ move up 1 – 1.5%. But, if you look at your technical indicators, you will find this rally should be short lived; cash is king. Let’s look at some charts:
Look at the volume today, we are barely at half the daily average! Today should end up with perhaps close to 1.2 billion shares traded, which is nothing to confirm a .70%+ move. The 50 DMA held up, but it may not be so lucky next time.
The QQQQ which is a tracking fund of the NASDAQ 100 isn’t looking too hot. 3 out of the last 7 days have been distribution, and with the close under the 50 Day Moving Average – 50 DMA – represented by the blue line on the chart, the index is now at resistance. Also, the move today has no steam! There is not nearly enough volume driving this push up, and by the end of next week the QQQQ may very well be trading under $43.
The only major Index that is holding its own, the S&P 500 is the strongest index to take note of. The channel it has been in has stood strong the last handful of months, and the index shows no “black and white” danger signs. But, be careful though because no stocks are really leading the pack right now, and if the NASDAQ maintains its wishy washy outlook, this may way on the S & P. A fall under 1410 is bearish for this index.
