Daily market commentary for Thursday, Nov 30th, 2006
Written By: Teresa Appleton Stock Forum ID: Teresa
Wednesday left us on a rocky road. Yes we closed the broader markets green, but there are a few problems to look at with this move today. Volume on the NYSE outpaced Tuesday’s to leave an accumulation day, it even outpaced Monday’s big surge in volume. BUT the Nasdaq was lighter than Monday or Tuesday. So today’s rally sparked by the GDP revision putting some inflation worries to rest was fueled by oil stocks leading the way. Big caps participation pulled us along all day. Semi’s, healthcare, brokers, hardware, software, airlines…all not spectacular performances and many red or barely green closes. So oil and bank’s performance were the stunners on the day.
Crude closed the day up $1.36 at $62.35 as weekly inventories showed a drop. Cold weather is finally setting in across the country to push supply needs. Gold fell today down $1.80 to close at $635.50, the dollar bounced back after its earlier beating this week to help push gold down today.
Thursday we have more economic data to set the tone on the day. Because of the lag in tech today we have to see that step up for this rally to have any legs. The S&P 500 has recovered almost all of the loss on Monday. The Nasdaq and Dow are about half way there, so there are some divergences and lack of participation going on here. Without the Nasdaq stepping up we cannot get far. This will be the key. Right now we are do or die. So my bias is about as neutral as it can be tonight. Last night was neutral with some upside outlook, tonight is without a doubt VERY neutral. I could toss a coin, Nasdaq participates we rally, Nasdaq fails we are retesting that low from Monday and possibly even lower.
Economic Data for the Week of November 27 – December 1: Thursday 08:30 Initial Claims, 8:30 Personal Income, 08:30 Personal Spending, 10:00 Chicago PMI, 10:00 Help Wanted Index, Friday 00:00 Auto Sales, 00:00 Truck Sales, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Index.
Some earnings for the week: Thursday pre market DLM, DG, HNZ, and after the bell HRB, ISLE, OVTI, UNCA. Friday pre market WMG.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Thursday’s pivot is 1399.5, weekly pivot is 1404.50. Intra day Support: 1399.75, 1397.50, 1396, 1394, 1391.75 and 1388.75. Resistance: 1403.50, 1406.25, 1408.50, 1411.25. 30 minute chart is below.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Thursday’s pivot is 1791.50, weekly pivot is 1814.75. I am including the Nasdaq tonight to show the difference in retracement and lag in the nas. Intraday Support: 1791.25, 1787, 1783.25, 1778.50, 1773.75. Resistance: 1797.755, 1805.25, 1810.75, 1815.75 and 1821.50. 30 minute chart is below.
Good trading to everyone Thursday. I also want to thank this community for reading regularly and I hope many of you benefit from a view that confirms your own or a different look at things.
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