Daily market commentary for Wednesday, Oct 11th, 2006

Written By: Teresa Appleton Stock Forum ID: Teresa

Tuesday marks day number FOUR in the range.  Can we get a move on it!  This market is wound up tight and needs to find its spring.  Broader markets are still possibly bull flags, but until we move we won’t know a thing.  I would have thought some pullback ahead of some big cap earnings next week was a nice setup for the market, but so far we are not seeing that.   The NYSE and Nasdaq both put in an accumulation, but the volume was still below average, but more than yesterdays so that qualifies as an accumulation day. 

Crude closed down on the day as traders are still waiting to hear if OPEC will meet to cut production or not.  But the fears seem to be pretty calm with oil down $1.44 at $58.52 on the close.  Gold closed down $6.60 at $576.20, overshadowed by the strength in the dollar.  Gold is actually very range bound like the broader markets. 

Earnings are making the market a little nervous as we kicked off with AA (Alcoa) which disappointed and will no doubt take a hit tomorrow.  Look to AL for some possible movement as well in the sector.  The day was so quiet it is hard to have a bias until we move, so I suggest staying light on your feet and look for intraday opportunities still. 

Some earnings for the week of September 9-13^th     Wednesday pre market FAST, INFY, MTB, PGR and after the bell LRCX, RI, YUM.  Thursday COST, GENZ, MTG, PEP, PII, WGO and after the bell CAMP.  Friday pre market GE.
 

Economic data for the Week of October 9 – October 13   Wednesday 14:00 FOMC Minutes, Thursday 08:30 Initial Claims, 08:30 Trade Balance, 10:30 Crude Inventories, 14:00 Fed’s Beige Book, Friday 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag., 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil, 08:30 Retail Sales, 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto, 09:50 Mich Sentiment Prel., 10:00 Business Inventories. 

ES (S&P 500 e-mini)  Prior weeks data:  H= 1363.25, L=1336 and C=1358.75.  Weekly pivot and support/resistance data:  PP=1352.75, R1 1369.25, R2=1380 R3=1407.25 and S1=1342, S2=1325.50, S3=1298.25.   Pivot for Wednesday is 1360.50.  Support  1358, 1356.50, 1354.25, 1352.50, 1350.50, 1347.50.  Resistance 1360.75, 1363.25, 1365.75, 1367.75, 1369.25.  We are still in range and not really moving.  So we’ll keep things light and still look for some movement around the key fibs and pivots.  Until we move out of range the expectations should be low and to take profits when you can.  Intraday on the ES we left a possible double top, also was a test of yesterdays highs for a triple if you look back.  So this overhead resistance is becoming strong with each test and each rise today was a struggle.  Today was a  shallow pullback and kept us over yesterdays lows.  We still need to look to technology to lead us and the SOX put in an inside red day today.  So there is nothing there until that expands to take charge of the market. 

NDX (Nasdaq 100)  closed +2.21 at 1693.29.  Support:  1682.55, 1664.69, 1656.74, 1648.79, 1637.48, 1623.07.  Resistance:  1694.12, 1701.98, 1716.42  and 1721.13.

Good trading to everyone.
Teresa

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